Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

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Market pricing makes Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? the favorite at 2%, as of .

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What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

NOalarabiya94%match98¢
The Strait of Hormuz is experiencing its lowest traffic in over two months... What's happening?
NOalakhbarnews95%match98¢
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at its lowest level in two months... and oil prices rise. Shipping data showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months, after attacks on oil tankers passing through this vital waterway last week reached their highest level since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
NOalarabiya_bn96%match98¢
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in more than two months
NOentekhab_news92%match98¢
Al Jazeera, citing shipping data: The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in more than two months as attacks hit their highest level since the start of the war On Tuesday, only 7 cargo ships passed through the waterway The volume of crude oil passing through the strait also fell by 27% last week from its peak during the war / Selected
YESRussian Media94%match3¢-33%
Middle East oil exports have exceeded levels seen before the outbreak of US-Israeli hostilities against Iran, Reuters reports, citing Kpler. On September 24, as well as from September 27 to 29, deliveries reached 19.5–22.5 million barrels per day, compared to a pre-war average of about 18 million barrels. By October 1, the seven-day average for exports was 18.5 million barrels per day. LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz also increased in September, reaching their highest level since February. Before the outbreak of hostilities, about 20% of global crude oil and LNG exports passed through the strait. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
YESspiegel.de92%match2¢
Iran War: Why is so much oil getting through the Strait of Hormuz again?
YESnikkei92%match4¢-50%
Saudi Arabia resumes crude oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz, transport volume recovers to 90% of pre-damage levels
NOalmayadeennews92%match93¢+5%
Al Mayadeen correspondent from Hormuz Island: We can see with our own eyes the accumulation of ships and the halt of traffic. The movement of ships confirms the Revolutionary Guard's naval control over the strait and all surrounding islands. Life is normal on the island, and the school year has begun routinely. #AlMayadeen
NOzerohedge91%match93¢+5%
Hormuz Oil Flows Rebound To Two-Thirds Prewar Level As Iran's Grip Erodes, Attacks 19 Ships
NOfoxnews.com97%match92¢+7%
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains about 75% below pre-war levels, UKTMO says
YESibtimes.com92%match9¢-78%
Iranian FM Says Hormuz Strait Will Reopen Within Seven Says If U.S. Meets 'Certain Conditions.' Oil Retreats.. • "The conditions we have asked the U.S. to meet are nothing new," Abbas Araghchi said.
YESlivesquawk92%match8¢-75%
US Defense Official: Some 60 Commercial Vessels Transited Hormuz Strait On Wednesday Carrying Highest Daily Volume Of Crude Since Early July - RTRS • • #OOTT
NOaljazeera.com97%match92¢+7%
Live: Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic rises slightly but remains below average
NOaljazeera.com95%match91¢+8%
Live: Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic remains low
NOdbws.io95%match92¢+7%
Hormuz vessel traffic falls to two, data shows
NOtf1info.fr92%match92¢+7%
Live: "PARTIAL" RESUMPTION OF TRAFFIC VIA ORMUZ
NOaljazeera.com95%match93¢+5%
Live: Weekend ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz drops
NOiranintlbrk92%match93¢+5%
Reuters: Visible traffic through the strait, which before the war carried a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, has fallen sharply. Yet Middle Eastern producers continue to export their oil on tankers with their location transmitters turned off.
YESUS Secretary of War93%match7¢-71%
Oil and gas shipments through Strait of Hormuz hit six-month high •
NOfoxnews.com93%match93¢+5%
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains around ‘90% below pre-conflict levels’ as gas prices climb
NOdbws.io96%match93¢+5%
Shipping traffic via Strait of Hormuz stays below 10-day average, data shows
NOAl Hadath93%match92¢+7%
Vance to the New York Post: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to 50% of its capacity.
YESIran Semi-Official Mehr93%match8¢-75%
Oman: Strait of Hormuz crisis will end soon Hamd Al-Numani, CEO of Oman LNG, said on Tuesday that the crisis related to the Strait of Hormuz will end soon. He said at a conference in Bangkok: The Strait of Hormuz crisis will change the company's long-term plans. mehrnews.com/x3d4Mk @mehrnews
NOAl Jazeera92%match93¢+5%
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz declines following escalation of attacks in the Middle East
Data shows that daily traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to single digits.
YESalarabiya92%match6¢-67%
Omani Energy Minister Salim al-Aufi: The Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and the current situation is likely to be short-lived.
YESAl Arabiya93%match7¢-71%
Oman's Energy Minister: The Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and the situation is likely to be short-term.
NOIranian Media93%match91¢+8%
97% decrease in oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz; What do the statistics say? Published statistics on oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz indicate a 97% decrease in oil tanker traffic compared to last year; while Donald Trump talks about controlling the Strait, only one oil tanker passed through this waterway on Friday. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
NOiranintlbrk97%match92¢+7%
The British Maritime Trade Operations Center announced that ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still about 90 percent below pre-conflict levels, with tankers accounting for the largest share of transiting vessels.
NOalarabytv92%match93¢+5%
Commercial vessels are stranded off the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas in Hormozgan province, awaiting the resumption of shipping traffic after Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on August 12 following the tit-for-tat attacks with the United States.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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