Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
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Market pricing makes Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? the favorite at 10%, as of .
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Reuters reported on Thursday, October 6, that the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in more than two months after a surge in attacks on oil tankers last week.
Just seven commercial ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the lowest number since August 1, Reuters reported, based on data and analysis from Kepler Analytics. Crude oil transits through the strait also fell 27 percent from their wartime highs last week to at least 10.1 million barrels per day, or 74 percent of pre-war levels.
The bulk of the decline was due to ship-to-ship transfers in the Sea of Oman, analysts at Kepler said.
However, exports from the coasts of the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea rose to 6.7 million barrels per day, more than double pre-war levels, helping to offset the drop in supply through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.
The number of ships transiting the strait rose to 10 on Wednesday, but was still far below the more than 20 ships on Sunday and Monday, Kepler data showed.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in more than two months
Al Jazeera, citing shipping data: The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in more than two months as attacks hit their highest level since the start of the war On Tuesday, only 7 cargo ships passed through the waterway The volume of crude oil passing through the strait also fell by 27% last week from its peak during the war / Selected
Reuters: Ship transit in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a two-month low.
Oil drops as Hormuz traffic rebounds
Crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing pre-war levels as Iran's ability to use the strait as leverage in negotiations diminishes. #WorldEnergy
#SkyEconomy
#Oil
#EnergySecurity
#StraitOfHormuz
#Iran
@KhaledKibbiSKY
Middle East crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have almost reached pre-Iran war levels, even with ongoing shipping risks, according to JPMorgan, which estimates roughly 17.5 million barrels per day.
Live: Oil through Hormuz climbs closer to pre-war levels
Saudi Arabia resumes crude oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz, with transport volumes recovering to 90% of pre-damage levels.
Wall Street Journal: Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes have reached about 80% of their pre-war flows
TotalEnergies CEO: Market Comes to a New Normal if Strait of Hormuz Capacity is at 50%
Steve Hanke: Oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz have decreased Steve Hanke, professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University: Last year on September 25, 45 oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz; this year, on September 25, not a single tanker passed through the strait. Thanks to President Trump, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
No ships in Hormuz Strait Satellite images released of the Strait of Hormuz show no ships in the passage. This is despite Trump claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Last weekend, only 5 ships passed through the Strait, and no crossings were recorded on Sunday. This is compared to 31 ships the previous weekend.
@Farsna
[UPDATE] Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz within 7 days and restart nuclear talks (first reported at 2026-09-25T05:37:21+0000)
Reuters: Shipping tracking data shows the number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped below 10.
The U.S. And Iran Are Reportedly Discussing a Deal To Reopen The Hormuz Strait. Oil Is Climbing Anyway.. • Tehran said it can fully reopen the waterway in seven days if its conditions are met.
Live: Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic rises slightly but remains below average
Iran: “Resumes passage through Strait of Hormuz within a week if U.S. military pressure eases”
Reuters: Ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz fell threefold over the weekend.
Live: Weekend ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz drops
Reuters: Visible traffic through the strait, which before the war carried a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, has fallen sharply. Yet Middle Eastern producers continue to export their oil on tankers with their location transmitters turned off.
Iran has announced the conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains around ‘90% below pre-conflict levels’ as gas prices climb
Strait of Hormuz Commodity Vessel Traffic Falls to 3 on Wednesday, Well Below 10-Day Average of About 17, Shipping Data Shows
FWD from Mehr International: 80% decrease in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Published maritime information indicates that only 3 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and this figure reached five ships on Monday. Reuters also reported that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the previous day reached four. This is while the average number of these ships over the past 10 days was 18. This means that the Strait of Hormuz has witnessed a more than 80% decrease in ship traffic compared to the previous 10 days. mehrnews.com/x3d537 @MehrnewsIntl
Vance to the New York Post: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to 50% of its capacity.
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz declines following escalation of attacks in the Middle East
Reuters: Shipping data shows a decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following escalating attacks in the Middle East
Oman: Strait of Hormuz to reopen soon Emphasizing that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon, Oman's Minister of Energy considered the current situation short-term and said: The increase in oil and gas prices will not be sustainable. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.