SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Open1as of
Market pricing makes SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? the favorite at 30%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
SpaceX plans to carry out the first orbital flight of a lunar rocket on September 28 The Starship spacecraft, which is being created for manned flights to the Moon and Mars, will carry out its first full-fledged orbital test flight around the Earth on September 28, the developer company SpaceX announced. "The upcoming flight should be the first during which Starship will enter low-Earth orbit. All previous flight tests were carried out on suborbital trajectories," the message says. "The entry into orbit will open the way to the next stage of Starship development - creating a system suitable for full and rapid reuse."
...
SpaceX soars 5% after Starship reusable rocket launch date revealed
Why Starship • • The point of Starship is not that it is the biggest rocket. • It is that mass to orbit stops being a one-way ticket. • • @elonmusk • “It's the first rocket design that is capable of full and rapid reusability.” • • Translation: every other orbital rocket is still a disposable truck. Starship is built so the truck comes home and goes again. Refill is the next chapter. Reuse is the breakthrough. • • 1. Falcon Heavy: ~64 t to LEO (expendable) • 2. Starship V3: >100 t to LEO reusable (SpaceX’s stated target) • 3. You cannot make enough rockets unless you can refly them • 4. Flight 13: Ship came home intact after entry • • You cannot become multiplanetary on expendable trucks.
Elon Musk Says SpaceX Will Launch Starship 'Every Hour' In Three Years.
What is this event about?
On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date.
The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.