Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
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Market pricing makes September 29 the favorite at 92% across 14 tracked outcomes, as of .
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9 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
10 tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz between September 28 and October 4, the highest number of attacks in a single week. [in reply to: Explosions rock the Strait of Hormuz: A crude oil tanker was targeted by a projectile while transiting the strait.]
10 tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz between September 28 and October 4, the highest number of attacks in a single week. [in reply to: Explosions rock the Strait of Hormuz: A crude oil tanker was targeted by a projectile while transiting the strait.]
Iran has increased the pace of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, just as oil shipments through the world’s most important energy chokepoint approach prewar levels. UK Maritime Trade Operations has reported nine attacks in the waterway already this month, half the total number it reported for all of September in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf combined. Last month’s figure was boosted by four assaults in the final two days, underscoring the recent acceleration. •
Iran has increased the pace of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, just as oil shipments through the world’s most important energy chokepoint approach prewar levels. UK Maritime Trade Operations has reported nine attacks in the waterway already this month, half the total number it reported for all of September in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf combined. Last month’s figure was boosted by four assaults in the final two days, underscoring the recent acceleration. •
The UKMTO received a delayed report of an incident that occurred on the evening of 28 September 2026 in the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO received a third-party report that a vessel was struck by a suspected unidentified projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a fire. The fire has since been extinguished, and the vessel is at sea. The crew is safe, and no environmental impact or damage assessment has been reported. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to the UKMTO while the authorities investigate.
The UKMTO received a delayed report of an incident that occurred on the evening of 28 September 2026 in the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO received a third-party report of a vessel struck by a suspected unidentified projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a fire. The fire has since been extinguished, and the vessel is at sea. The crew is safe, and no environmental impact or damage assessment has been reported. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to the UKMTO while the authorities investigate. [in reply to: [image only]]
02:17/ 25th of September
A massive and unprecedented missile and drone attack on violating vessels in the Strait of Hormuz is currently underway.
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization, citing continued disruption to navigation systems, said two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on September 20. A bulk carrier was also targeted by a projectile near Oman on October 1. One person was killed and one was injured in the attack.
According to published reports, today, Monday, September 20, 1405, an oil tanker was targeted by an unidentified projectile while entering the Strait of Hormuz, injuring two of its crew members. The Associated Press reported, citing the British military, that the tanker was targeted while entering the Strait of Hormuz, and that two of its crew members sustained superficial injuries. @VahidHeadline @VahidOnline
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.