Next Claude Sonnet released on...?

ResolvedOutcomes23as of

This hub tracks 23 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

September 28100%
On or prior to September 240%
September 250%
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October 10%
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No release by October 150%

What moved the odds?

4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

No release by October 15Anthropic Researcher94%match100¢
Introducing Claude Sonnet 5.5, the second model in the Claude 5.5 family. • • It’s a clear upgrade over Sonnet 5, runs more than 30% faster, and costs up to 30% less for most work.
No release by October 15stockmktnewz94%match99¢+1%
ANTHROPIC JUST SAID THAT IT IS • • - RELEASING SONNET 5.5, SECOND MODEL IN CLAUDE 5.5 MODEL FAMILY
No release by October 15dbws.io93%match99¢+1%
Anthropic rolls out second Claude 5.5 model as it builds toward IPO
No release by October 15Reuters93%match99¢+1%
Anthropic: Releasing Sonnet 5.5, Second Model in Claude 5.5 Model Family

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public. Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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