Minnesota Senate Election Winner
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Market pricing makes Peggy Flanagan (D) the favorite at 88% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrat Peggy Flanagan Narrowly Leads Republican Michele Tafoya In Minnesota (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s poll tracker.
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrat Peggy Flanagan Narrowly Leads Republican Michele Tafoya In Minnesota (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s poll tracker.
Flanagan leads Tafoya by 4 points in new Minnesota Senate poll Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) leads her GOP opponent, former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, in a new poll in the state’s U.S. Senate race. The Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll reported 47 percent of voters supported Flanagan, while 43 percent backed Tafoya, 9 percent were undecided and less than 1 percent picked…
Flanagan leads Tafoya by 4 points in new Minnesota Senate poll Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) leads her GOP opponent, former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, in a new poll in the state’s U.S. Senate race. The Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll reported 47 percent of voters supported Flanagan, while 43 percent backed Tafoya, 9 percent were undecided and less than 1 percent picked…
After a contentious primary, Angie Craig will campaign alongside MN Dem Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan on Saturday in Burnsville
AI safety ‘doomers’ pouring cash into Minnesota’s Senate race for Sanders-backed lefty Peggy Flanagan
Sunday shows 3: Surprise view on @CNNSOTU panel (3 D, 1 R?) - Michele Tafoya might beat Gov. Peggy Flanagan for Senate seat, 1 guest (the R) says. But, "Polymarket has an 86% chance of Flanagan winning the seat, Tafoya 14% chance."
John Thune heads to Minnesota today to campaign for #MNSEN nominee Michele Tafoya, including at a family farm in Le Sueur. • • Trump lost the state by 5 points in 2024, though NRSC chair Tim Scott recently called the race "perhaps one of the most exciting" on the map for the GOP.
Minnesota Might Hand Republicans A Senate Upset Nobody Predicted
Minnesota Might Hand Republicans A Senate Upset Nobody Predicted
Ex-NFL reporter Michele Tafoya hammers Minnesota Dems on welfare fraud — as polls show her neck and neck in Senate race
Live: First to NBC News: AOC endorses Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota Senate race
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.