Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
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This hub tracks 12 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
It’ll get adjusted in the final canvass, but turnout in Mass primaries was lower than the Sep. 2020 primaries, when COVID limited campaigning but the Kennedy-Markey primary supercharged voter interest. • • Markey won a landslide but got fewer votes than Kennedy did in 2020. • • Richie Neal won… but again, with fewer votes than the 2020 challenger he easily defeated. • • Not that meaningful, with no competitive November races. Higher than the 2022 midterm turnout, when none of the statewide or House primaries were competitive. Just striking given how close the House challengers came this time.
It’ll get adjusted in the final canvass, but turnout in Mass primaries was lower than the Sep. 2020 primaries, when COVID limited campaigning but the Kennedy-Markey primary supercharged voter interest. • • Markey won a landslide but got fewer votes than Kennedy did in 2020. • • Richie Neal won… but again, with fewer votes than the 2020 challenger he easily defeated. • • Not that meaningful, with no competitive November races. Higher than the 2022 midterm turnout, when none of the statewide or House primaries were competitive. Just striking given how close the House challengers came this time.
It’ll get adjusted in the final canvass, but turnout in Mass primaries was lower than the Sep. 2020 primaries, when COVID limited campaigning but the Kennedy-Markey primary supercharged voter interest. • • Markey won a landslide but got fewer votes than Kennedy did in 2020. • • Richie Neal won… but again, with fewer votes than the 2020 challenger he easily defeated. • • Not that meaningful, with no competitive November races. Higher than the 2022 midterm turnout, when none of the statewide or House primaries were competitive. Just striking given how close the House challengers came this time.
It’ll get adjusted in the final canvass, but turnout in Mass primaries was lower than the Sep. 2020 primaries, when COVID limited campaigning but the Kennedy-Markey primary supercharged turnout. • • Markey won a landslide but got fewer votes than Kennedy did in 2020. • • Richie Neal won… but again, with fewer votes than the 2020 challenger he easily defeated. • • Not that meaningful, with no competitive November races. Higher than the 2022 midterm turnout, when none of the statewide or House primaries were competitive. Just striking given how close the House challengers came this time.
It’ll get adjusted in the final canvass, hut turnout in Mass primaries was lower than the Sep. 2020 primaries, when COVID limited campaigning but the Kennedy-Markey primary supercharged turnout. • • Markey won a landslide but got fewer votes than Kennedy did in 2020. • • Richie Neal won… but again, with fewer votes than the 2020 challenger he easily defeated. • • Not that meaningful, with no competitive November races. Higher than the 2022 midterm turnout, when none of the statewide or House primaries were competitive. Just striking given how close the House challengers came this time.
Live: Democratic Sen. Ed Markey easily fends off Massachusetts primary challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton
Israel critic Ed Markey trounces Seth Moulton in Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary
With an estimated 65% reporting, Ed Markey leads by 30 percentage points and has a commanding lead in every media market. • •
With an estimated 65% reporting, Ed Markey leads by 30 percentage points and has a commanding lead in every media market. • •
With an estimated 65% reporting, Ed Markey leads by 30 percentage points and has a commanding lead in every media market. • •
With an estimated 65% reporting, Ed Markey leads by 30 percentage points and has a commanding lead in every media market. • •
With an estimated 65% reporting, Ed Markey leads by 30 percentage points and has a commanding lead in every media market. • • He's running strongest in the Springfield/Holyoke market, where he has over 69% of the vote. • •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 52% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 316,172 (64.2%) • Seth Moulton (D): 176,066 (35.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 52% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 316,172 (64.2%) • Seth Moulton (D): 176,066 (35.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 52% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 316,172 (64.2%) • Seth Moulton (D): 176,066 (35.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 45% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 278,644 (65.3%) • Seth Moulton (D): 148,271 (34.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 45% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 278,644 (65.3%) • Seth Moulton (D): 148,271 (34.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 45% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 278,644 (65.3%) • Seth Moulton (D): 148,271 (34.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Markey defeats Rep. Seth Moulton, a HASC member and the top Dem on the Strategic Forces Subcommittee, in the Massachusetts Senate Democratic primary.
Markey defeats Rep. Seth Moulton, a HASC member and the top Dem on the Strategic Forces Subcommittee, in the Massachusetts Senate Democratic primary.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 37% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 224,573 (65.2%) • Seth Moulton (D): 119,877 (34.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 37% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 224,573 (65.2%) • Seth Moulton (D): 119,877 (34.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 37% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 224,573 (65.2%) • Seth Moulton (D): 119,877 (34.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 17% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 108,228 (67.1%) • Seth Moulton (D): 52,972 (32.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 17% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 108,228 (67.1%) • Seth Moulton (D): 52,972 (32.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 17% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 108,228 (67.1%) • Seth Moulton (D): 52,972 (32.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 17% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 108,228 (67.1%) • Seth Moulton (D): 52,972 (32.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 7% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 48,002 (70.5%) • Seth Moulton (D): 20,092 (29.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 7% in): Massachusetts US Senate Democratic Primary • • Edward Markey (D): 48,002 (70.5%) • Seth Moulton (D): 20,092 (29.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
Incumbent Ed Markey, 80, defeats Seth Moulton, 47, in Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary
What is this event about?
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.