Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryMarkey <5%

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$405Resolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOSemafor Reporter95%match100¢
It’ll get adjusted in the final canvass, but turnout in Mass primaries was lower than the Sep. 2020 primaries, when COVID limited campaigning but the Kennedy-Markey primary supercharged voter interest. • • Markey won a landslide but got fewer votes than Kennedy did in 2020. • • Richie Neal won… but again, with fewer votes than the 2020 challenger he easily defeated. • • Not that meaningful, with no competitive November races. Higher than the 2022 midterm turnout, when none of the statewide or House primaries were competitive. Just striking given how close the House challengers came this time.
NOSemafor Reporter96%match100¢
It’ll get adjusted in the final canvass, but turnout in Mass primaries was lower than the Sep. 2020 primaries, when COVID limited campaigning but the Kennedy-Markey primary supercharged turnout. • • Markey won a landslide but got fewer votes than Kennedy did in 2020. • • Richie Neal won… but again, with fewer votes than the 2020 challenger he easily defeated. • • Not that meaningful, with no competitive November races. Higher than the 2022 midterm turnout, when none of the statewide or House primaries were competitive. Just striking given how close the House challengers came this time.
NOSemafor Reporter96%match100¢
It’ll get adjusted in the final canvass, hut turnout in Mass primaries was lower than the Sep. 2020 primaries, when COVID limited campaigning but the Kennedy-Markey primary supercharged turnout. • • Markey won a landslide but got fewer votes than Kennedy did in 2020. • • Richie Neal won… but again, with fewer votes than the 2020 challenger he easily defeated. • • Not that meaningful, with no competitive November races. Higher than the 2022 midterm turnout, when none of the statewide or House primaries were competitive. Just striking given how close the House challengers came this time.

Where does the news lean?

0YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.

How did this market resolve?

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Related markets

See all outcomes for Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.