Maine Senate Election Winner
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Market pricing makes Troy Jackson (D) the favorite at 60% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
In Maine, Susan Collins has rather quietly been benefitting from a new super PAC started just last month called The Maine Standard. • • The group has booked about $8.5 million worth of ads like this through Election Day.
Jackson holds slight lead over Collins in Maine Senate race survey Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) trails Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in her bid for a sixth term, with less than a month until the midterm elections. A new Washington Post-Schar School poll found Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, leading Collins 50 percent to 46 percent among Maine voters. The closely watched contest could play a…
Jackson holds slight lead over Collins in Maine Senate race survey Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) trails Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in her bid for a sixth term, with less than a month until the midterm elections. A new Washington Post-Schar School poll found Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, leading Collins 50 percent to 46 percent among Maine voters. The closely watched contest could play a…
Live: Senator Susan Collins, who received a largely positive reception while campaigning at a fair in Fryeburg, Maine, today, pushed back after she was asked what her message was to voters who were unhappy with the country’s direction and wanted change. “I contest the premise of your question,” Collins said. “As you can see from the response here today which was enormously favorable.”
Live: Senator Susan Collins told reporters in Fryeburg, Maine, that she had helped expedite the release of more than $38 million in federal heating assistance funding for low-income Maine residents. Spiking fuel oil costs have become a major issue in the Senate race in Maine, where half the homes are warmed with heating oil.
[UPDATE] Democrat has edge over Susan Collins in critical Maine Senate battle, poll finds (first reported at 2026-10-09T09:00:54.638150Z)
[UPDATE] Democrat has edge over Susan Collins in critical Maine Senate battle, poll finds (first reported at 2026-10-09T09:00:54.638150Z)
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrat Jackson Leads In Maine Senate Race, Republican Hinson Ahead In Iowa (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s poll tracker.
Voters favor Jackson on five other key issues: abortion (by 16 percentage points), reducing corruption (15 points), understanding the problems of Maine voters (11 points), cost of living (11 points) and health care (9 points).
Maine Democrat Troy Jackson leads in poll against Sen. Susan Collins
Maine Democrat Troy Jackson leads in poll against Sen. Susan Collins
Poll: Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leads Susan Collins in Maine Senate race
Poll: Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leads Susan Collins in Maine Senate race
FIRST ON MS NOW: Obama endorses Troy Jackson as Maine Senate race enters final stretch
Live: Barack Obama endorses Troy Jackson in Maine Senate race
President Obama just endorsed Troy Jackson in the Maine Senate race.
Live: Former President Barack Obama endorsed Troy Jackson, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine, in a video Jackson’s campaign released this morning. “In this economy, we need a fighter like Troy,” Obama says in the video, pointing to Jackson’s background as a logger and his efforts as a state lawmaker to “raise wages, lower the cost of prescription drugs and provide free lunch to every student in the state.”
Obama endorses Troy Jackson in Maine Senate race
Live: Susan Collins started by talking about the projects she has brought back to Maine, from fire stations to better roads. When I was in Maine over the summer, even Democrats in the state told me they had respect for her ability to bring investments to the state. That reputation is part of why she’s shown such staying power in the Senate even as the political environment has changed.
Live: Democrats underestimate Susan Collins at their peril. In 2020, she was reelected by nine points, even as President Trump lost the state and amid a huge amount of spending by Democrats.
Live: Polls have given Democrats reason to celebrate in nearly every battleground state in recent weeks — except for in Maine. A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey showed Susan Collins ahead in the state for the first time since Graham Platner dropped out of the race in July.
Live: The Senate race has gone from hopeful to deeply messy for Democrats. Their first nominee, Graham Platner, exited the race in July amid allegations of sexual assault, which he has denied. Platner and his progressive allies pushed hard for Troy Jackson, who came in third in the state’s primary for governor. But he’s struggled to gain traction against Collins, who has a strong brand in the state.
Live: The Senate race has gone from hopeful to deeply messy for Democrats. Their first nominee, Graham Platner, exited the race in July amid allegations of sexual assault, which he has denied. Platner and his progressive allies pushed hard for Troy Jackson, who came in third in the state’s primary for governor. But he’s struggled to gain traction against Collins, who has a strong brand in the state.
New Maine Senate poll — Marist • • Jackson 51% • Collins 47% • • *** • • Independents: Jackson+7 • Non-college: Collins+22 • College grads: Jackson+46 • • *** • • Trump approval: 40/59 • Generic ballot: D+9 • •
New Maine Senate poll — Marist • • Jackson 51% • Collins 47% • • *** • • Independents: Jackson+7 • Non-college: Collins+22 • College grads: Jackson+46 • • *** • • Trump approval: 40/59 • Generic ballot: D+9 • •
Live: Troy Jackson is scrambling to defeat Maine Sen. Susan Collins. Time is not on his side
Live: Troy Jackson is scrambling to defeat Maine Sen. Susan Collins. Time is not on his side
Troy Jackson is scrambling to defeat Maine Sen. Susan Collins. Time is not on his side
Troy Jackson is scrambling to defeat Maine Sen. Susan Collins. Time is not on his side
MAINE GOV RACE: Democrat Hannah Pingree's lead in the governor's race hews much more closely to the state's overall partisan lean. (Kamala Harris won the state.) Pingree gets some of the voters who are splitting their tickets to back Collins.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.