Maine Senate Election WinnerTroy Jackson (D)
Open$1.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 60% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES60¢
NO41¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrat Jackson Leads In Maine Senate Race, Republican Hinson Ahead In Iowa (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s poll tracker.
FIRST ON MS NOW: Obama endorses Troy Jackson as Maine Senate race enters final stretch
President Obama just endorsed Troy Jackson in the Maine Senate race.
Obama endorses Troy Jackson in Maine Senate race
Live: The Senate race has gone from hopeful to deeply messy for Democrats. Their first nominee, Graham Platner, exited the race in July amid allegations of sexual assault, which he has denied. Platner and his progressive allies pushed hard for Troy Jackson, who came in third in the state’s primary for governor. But he’s struggled to gain traction against Collins, who has a strong brand in the state.
62% chance of a Democrat victory in Maine. •
YESAxios98%match68¢-12%
Abortion rights group backs Janet Mills and others in first 2026 Senate endorsements
Where does the news lean?
21YES8NO22neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
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See all outcomes for Maine Senate Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.