Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman takes double-digit lead over Karen Bass in new LA mayor’s race prediction

Nithya Raman takes double-digit lead over Karen Bass in new LA mayor’s race prediction

The Palisades is furious with Karen Bass. Nithya Raman still has a hard sell. LOS ANGELES — This isn’t the mayoral race voters in fire-scarred Pacific Palisades wanted. Fairly or not, many in the coastal Los Angeles community blame one candidate, incumbent MayorKaren Bass, for last year’s devastating wildfire that killed 12 people and burned down 5,800 homes. AndBass’opponent,Nithya Raman, pushes a brand of progressivism that is anathema to many in the Palisades, where voters are overwhelmingly white and trend older, wealthier and more conservative than the rest of the city. Yet the Palisades has emerged as a key battleground in the election — for both its many undecided voters and potent symbolism. The destruction the Palisades suffered is emblematic, Raman campaign insiders say, ofBass’mismanagement of the city and fodder for her to sway voters there and more broadly in contested areas of the westside and San Fernando Valley. And its furious residents present a test case for whether moderate and conservative voters are so dissatisfied with the status quo that they’re willing to cast ballots forRaman, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. “It’s a question of just how fed up are people?” saidSara Sadhwani, a politics professor at Pomona College who served on the California Citizens Redistricting Commission. A University of California, Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll releasedlast week showed theBasscampaign teetering. She trailedRaman, a city council member, by 11 percentage points, though a third of voters remained undecided. Driving downBass’numbers was the fire: 56% of likely voters believed she’d done a poor or very poor job responding to the disaster, the poll found. Despite warnings of intense winds and tinder dry conditions, she was on a diplomatic trip to Ghana when the blaze tore through the Palisades. Her fire department failed to extinguish an earlier blaze that reignited into the disaster, didn’t predeploy firefighters to the area and didn’t have sufficient water from hydrants or backup tankers to battle the flames. In the aftermath,Bassclashed with her initial recovery czar and has since cycled through consultants. Palisades residents still fret about the pace of rebuilding. As of last week, just 49 homes have been completed on burned lots in Pacific Palisades, according to a POLITICO analysis of city data. That’s less than a third of the number built in Altadena, the inland Los Angeles community destroyed in a separate fire the same day. Soon after the blaze, signs calling forBass’resignation littered burnt-out yards. “She should have been removed from office the day after the fire,” saidJeremy Padawer, a toy-maker who lost his home andled an anniversary protestdirected atBassand Gov.Gavin Newsomtitled, “They Let Us Burn.” At the protest, former reality TV starSpencer Pratt, who also lost his home in the blaze, announced what appeared to be a long-shot candidacy for mayor. But the political neophyte channeled the community’s rage into a bomb-throwing campaign againstBassand City Hall, finishing third in the primary with 26% of the vote. Pratt’smessage resonated especially in the Palisades, where he won a majority.Bassended up a distant second in the community with 18% support.Raman, who represents a district snaking through the Hollywood Hills and the San Fernando Valley, finished with 14%, landing her fourth in the neighborhood behind a tech entrepreneur who garnered less than 4% citywide. The Palisades’ lack of love for Raman, residents say, is owed to her relatively low name recognition on the city’s westside and progressive stance on social issues. That hasn’t stoppedRaman, however, from trying to convert voters using her principal message: Los Angeles’ basic functions are broken, andBasscan’t fix them. Ramanreleaseda wildfire recovery proposal in the springcalling for targeted city financing and a designated mayoral point person to handle reconstruction. She has visited the community eight times during the campaign, a Raman spokesperson said. On one such trip in late August, an informal meet-and-greet with state and local candidates in a commercial parking lot, the council member made her case. “I hear from residents — and I’ve had the opportunity of touring the neighborhoods and speaking to many residents, including friends of mine who lost their homes — that the city has let them down,”Ramansaid. “I don’t want to let you down. I want to meet you with the same urgency that you feel for recovery.” Palisades residents crowded around her. Their questions alternated between fire recovery and skepticism overRaman’sprogressive positions: You’ve votedagainst banning homeless encampmentsnear schools and daycares. Why? Ramansaid that it’s better to offer homeless people shelter and resources: “I’ve been very effective atreducing encampmentsin my district.” You’ve said you wanted to “defund the police.” I’m worried about public safety. Ramanacknowledged that she’d used the phrase before but emphasized that she voted for multiple budgets that expanded the police force: “I am not anti-police at all.” You identify as a democratic socialist. What does that mean? “There’s a lot of gaps when you have a system that is defined by profits,”Ramanreplied. “I believe in a big, progressive government that is stepping in and filling the gaps.” Ramananswered questions for nearly three hours. Many residents told POLITICO they were left unconvinced. Others lamented the choices before them. And some said the mayor’s underwhelming response to the fire has made them turn to Raman. Jacqueline Calavan, who askedRamanabout defunding the police, said the issue matters to her because it took officers hours to show up after she called 911 about trespassers outside her home. She worriedRaman’selection would make matters worse. Calavan chose Bass in the primary because “she was the lesser of all the evils at the time.” But nothing the mayor’s done since has given her confidence, she said. She is distressed that the community’s reservoir, which was offline before the 2025 blaze, remains unfilled as another fire season approaches. Asked if she planned to vote forBassagain,Calavanreplied, “I just don’t know.” Morgan Goldberg, a realtor who lost her home in the fire, backedPrattbecause she believed that without his in-your-face advocacy, the Palisades would have been forgotten. Now, Goldberg said she was voting forBass. Despite a dismal review of the mayor’s performance,Goldbergbelieved a Raman victory would lead to more homelessness and crime. “If you think it’s Armageddon now, look out,” she said. But forRobert Lempert, any concerns aboutRaman’saffiliation with democratic socialists or lack of executive experience were outweighed by his belief she’d be a more creative leader in the fire recovery. Raman, he said, “is a lot less patient with the status quo.” Since his loss,Pratthas not given his supporters clear direction about who to choose in the runoff, and he has instead relished taking shots at both Bass andRaman. He ripped intoBasslast week after she trashed him in a recent interview. “This incompetent communist burned down my town, she’s wrecked the city, homelessness is getting worse...she must be fired,”Prattposted on X. “Vote outKaren Bass.” Last month,he calledRaman“the worst possible choice for mayor imaginable.” Asked by POLITICO if he planned to endorse in the race,Prattreplied in a direct message on X, “You expect me to endorse dumb and dumber? LMAO.” Other Bass detractors, however, have softened their tone. Billionaire developerRick Carusoand City Council memberTraci Parkgreeted the mayor warmly this month when she made a rare public appearance in the Palisades to celebrate the groundbreaking of the community’s recreation center. Previously Caruso, who lost toBassfour years ago, had blistered the mayor over her handling of the fire.Carusoused private firefighters to save his upscale shopping center in Pacific Palisades, and many Palisades residents speak ruefully about the moderate Democrat’s decision not to run again. At the groundbreaking,CarusopraisedBassas “a great leader” for ushering the rec center through the city bureaucracy. The developer said he planned to meet withRamanbefore deciding whether to endorse one of the candidates but called the Democratic Socialists of America a threat to the city. Park, who spoke at the They Let us Burn protest and took nearly 90% of the vote in Pacific Palisades in her June reelection bid, has pushed fiercely againstRaman. She calledinto a radio showthis month to blast the candidate’s interest in the Palisades as “political expediency” and criticize her positions on homelessness and policing. The Bass campaign has amplifiedPark’sremarks and leaned into the newfound friendliness from her critics. “Working alongside local leaders like CouncilmemberTraci ParkandRick Caruso, MayorBasshas delivered tremendous progress in the Palisades,” campaign spokespersonAlex Stacksaid, citing the reopening of schools and businesses and home permitting. The mayor’s campaign managertold POLITICO this monththat they intended to deploy Park as a “surrogate” to reachPrattsupporters. That was a bridge too far for Park, who is the only member of the City Council — aside from Raman — not to endorseBass.Parkreiterated her shots atRamanin a statement to POLITICO but added that she wasn’t anyone’s surrogate. “As an LA resident and councilmember, I have deep concerns about the leadership and effectiveness of both candidates,”Parksaid. Perhaps more encouraging forBassthan her reception at the groundbreaking is what happened beforehand. The mayor ate lunch at a bustling Palisades cafe, and according to multiple people in attendance, she posed for pictures and answered questions from residents without encountering angry outbursts — an outcome unimaginable nine months ago. Moreover, the signs that called for her resignation no longer appear around the community. EvenPadawer, who organized the anniversary protest against the mayor, said he saw a path to voting for her. Padaweris turned off byRaman’spublic safety positions and has noticed that Bass is speaking more openly about the failures leading up to the fire. Should the mayor take greater accountability and be open to compensating Palisades residents who’ve sued the city, he said it would be “an easy vote forBass.” But if the mayor doesn’t,Padawerintends to giveRamana closer look.

New - Mayor poll - Los Angeles Nithya Raman 39% Karen Bass (Inc) 28% Berkeley IGS #B - LV - 9/20

New - Mayor poll - Los Angeles Nithya Raman 39% Karen Bass (Inc) 28% Berkeley IGS #B - LV - 9/20

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