Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraíba

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Lula100%

What moved the odds?

14 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Flavio Bolsonarofrance24.com96%match1¢-100%
Presidential election in Brazil: how to explain Flavio Bolsonaro's success against incumbent Lula?
Flavio Bolsonaroafp97%match1¢-100%
Right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro pulled off a surprise first-place finish ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Sunday's election, which heads to a run-off in three weeks as neither clinched a majority. •
“More moderate” than his father? Who is Flavio Bolsonaro, the surprise of the first round of the presidential election in Brazil?
Lulaapnews.com98%match99¢+1%
[UPDATE] Bolsonaro and Lula head to a runoff in Brazil's presidential election (first reported at 2026-10-04T04:59:45Z)
Flavio Bolsonarortl.fr98%match1¢-100%
Presidential election in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro pulls off a surprise victory, overtaking Lula in the first round
Flavio BolsonaroFrench Media98%match1¢-100%
Brazil: Conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of Jair Bolsonaro, surprises by overtaking Lula in the first round of the presidential election
LulaNews93%match99¢+1%
Brazilian media reports that Lula and Flavio are certain to advance to the runoff in the presidential election.
Flavio Bolsonarodbws.io95%match1¢-100%
Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil election first-round, early count shows
Escritor Augusto CuryReuters98%match100¢
Lula Seen with 42%, Flavio Bolsonaro 37%, Augusto Cury 5%, Caiado 5%, Renan Santos 4%, in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Btg/Nexus Poll
Lula will increase his presence in the Northeast in the final stretch of his campaign.
Luladbws.io94%match98¢+2%
Brazil’s Lula raises welfare benefit ahead of October election
Escritor Augusto CuryReuters98%match99¢+1%
Lula Seen with 39%, Flavio Bolsonaro 31%, Augusto Cury 6% Renan Santos 4%, Caiado 2%, in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Btg/Nexus Poll
Flavio Bolsonarodbws.io96%match1¢-100%
Lula’s lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, Quaest poll shows
#Opinion by: Emir Sader | Lula has a very good chance of winning →

What is this event about?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).