Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District
Open40as of
Market pricing makes Flavio Bolsonaro the favorite at 83% across 40 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Candidate T50%
Candidate U50%
Candidate Y50%
Candidate Z50%
Candidate A50%
Candidate B50%
Candidate C50%
Candidate D50%
Candidate E50%
Candidate F50%
Candidate G50%
Candidate J50%
Candidate M50%
Candidate N50%
Candidate O50%
Candidate S50%
Candidate H50%
Lula16%
Samara0%
Zema0%
All further outcomes (10 more):
Candidate I · Candidate K · Candidate L · Candidate P · Candidate Q · Candidate R · Candidate V · Candidate W · Candidate X · Other
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Digital Connection 25-08 Lula Da Silva favorite for re-election in Brazil
Brazil's elections heat up... Lula leads, Flavio Bolsonaro bets on Rio de Janeiro
@DeddahAbdallah
@NafeeYahya
Brazil's elections heat up... Lula leads, Flavio Bolsonaro bets on Rio de Janeiro
@DeddahAbdallah
@NafeeYahya
Lula leads over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows
Lula leads over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows
Lula Seen with 39% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 33% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Datafolha Poll
Lula Seen with 39% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 33% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Datafolha Poll
What is this event about?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).