Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal DistrictFlavio Bolsonaro
Open$12Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 88% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES88¢
NO13¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Lula leads over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows
NOReuters98%match27¢-56%
Lula Seen with 39% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 33% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Datafolha Poll
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Related markets
See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.