Bank of Japan Decision in December?
Open5as of
Market pricing makes 25 bps increase the favorite at 78% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
BoJ Locks In Dec Hike, But Neutral-Rate Uncertainty Muddies Outlook – RTRS • •
BoJ Locks In Dec Hike, But Neutral-Rate Uncertainty Muddies Outlook – RTRS • •
BoJ Locks In Dec Hike, But Neutral-Rate Uncertainty Muddies Outlook – RTRS • •
ANALYSIS-BOJ locks in December hike, but neutral-rate uncertainty muddies outlook
ANALYSIS-BOJ locks in December hike, but neutral-rate uncertainty muddies outlook
The yen traded in a narrow range against the dollar around 157, prompting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December.
The yen traded in a narrow range against the dollar around 157, prompting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December.
The yen traded in a narrow range against the dollar around 157, prompting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December.
*Bond market sources: The Bank of Japan's terminal rate, currently at 2.5%, is likely at its upper limit, according to market expectations.
*Bond market sources: The Bank of Japan's terminal rate, currently at 2.5%, is likely at its upper limit, according to market expectations.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.