AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner
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This hub tracks 19 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
It was a huge night for Trump-endorsed candidates in Arizona. @andybiggs4az CRUSHED his opponents - earning more than 70 percent of the vote in the GOP primary for governor. Congressional candidate Jay Feely won the GOP nod in the 1st district. Mark Lamb won in the 5th district. The Trump endorsement remains the Gold Standard in politics.
Mark Lamb is the heavy favorite to replace Andy Biggs in the solidly red #AZ05
Trump-Backed Jay Feely Wins GOP Primary in Arizona’s 1st District- Politico
Trump-backed Mark Lamb wins Arizona House primary despite sex scandals
Live: Jay Feely wins the Republican primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District, NBC News projects
WASHINGTON (AP) — Mark Lamb wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Arizona's 5th Congressional District
Live: Mark Lamb wins the Republican primary for Arizona's 5th Congressional District, NBC News projects
DDHQ Race Update (est. 60% in): Arizona US House 5 Republican Primary • • Mark Lamb (R): 33,072 (58.7%) • Daniel Keenan (R): 23,259 (41.3%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 60% in): Arizona US House 5 Republican Primary • • Mark Lamb (R): 33,072 (58.7%) • Daniel Keenan (R): 23,259 (41.3%) • • Follow more results here: •
It is my Great Honor to endorse MAGA Warrior Mark Lamb, who is running to represent the Great People of Arizona’s 5th Congressional District. As the former Sheriff of Pinal County, Mark strongly supports our incredible Law Enforcement, Military, and Veterans, and knows the Wisdom and Courage it takes to Ensure LAW AND ORDER. In Congress, Mark will work hard to Keep our Border SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Unleash American Energy DOMINANCE, and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment. Mark Lamb has my Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next Congressman from Arizona’s 5th Congressional District — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on July 21, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.