Alaska Senate Election Winner
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Market pricing makes Mary Peltola the favorite at 74% across 29 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Mary Peltola74%
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 48% InsiderAdvantage () 1,200 Likely Voters 10/9-10/10
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 48% InsiderAdvantage () 1,200 Likely Voters 10/9-10/10
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) 48% InsiderAdvantage - LV - 10/10
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) 48% InsiderAdvantage - LV - 10/10
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Alaska Senate race to ‘leans Democrat’ Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper based at the University of Virginia, has shifted its race rating for the Alaska Senate race to be more optimistic for Democrats. The outlet moved the race to “Leans Democrat” from “Toss-up,” showing that polling data and other indicators are increasingly suggesting former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) could topple…
Live: Vice President JD Vance made what he said was his first ever visit to Alaska on Monday, rallying in Fairbanks in support of Representative Nick Begich and Senator Dan Sullivan, who both face competitive re-election contests. Sullivan in particular appears vulnerable, with a recent New York Times poll finding him trailing his Democratic challenger, former Representative Mary Peltola, by seven percentage points in a crucial contest that could help determine control of the chamber.
Live: Vice President JD Vance will be in Fairbanks, Alaska, tonight to rally voters for Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican locked in a tight race in the state against the Democratic challenger, Mary Peltola. Before boarding a plane, Vance called Sullivan “somebody we really need to keep in the United States Senate.”
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 43% New York Times/Siena University 504 Likely Voters 9/24-10/1
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 43% New York Times/Siena University 504 Likely Voters 9/24-10/1
Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024. But Democrat Mary Peltola is now a slight favorite to flip its Senate seat. • • The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola a 61% shot of defeating Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, making #AKSen the Democrats' 2nd-most likely flip after #NCSen.
Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024. But Democrat Mary Peltola is now a slight favorite to flip its Senate seat. • • The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola a 61% shot of defeating Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, making #AKSen the Democrats' 2nd-most likely flip after #NCSen.
Live: A spokesman for Senator Dan Sullivan, Republican of Alaska, suggested that a New York Times report detailing angry private outbursts by the Democratic candidate, Mary Peltola, offered only a window into her campaign. The spokesman, Nate Adams, urged Alaskans to imagine “what else Mary Peltola is hiding from Alaskans.”
Mary Peltola’s closest aides describe a routine history of physical violence, explosive anger, and utter disdain for Alaskans, which makes her entirely unfit for the US Senate. @MaryPeltola’s deeply offensive and disturbing comments do not represent the Alaska way and she must publicly apologize to her staff and the people of Alaska.
Toss Up -> Leans Democratic • • In today's DDHQ Forecast update, Alaska's Senate race is out of the Toss Up column. • • Democrat Mary Peltola has a 61% win probability, up from 51% in late July.
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 53% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 47% AARP 800 Likely Voters 9/8-9/11
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 53% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 47% AARP 800 Likely Voters 9/8-9/11
New - Senate poll - Alaska Dan Sullivan (Inc) 48% Mary Peltola 46% Co/efficient #C - LV - 9/17
New - Senate poll - Alaska Dan Sullivan (Inc) 48% Mary Peltola 46% Co/efficient #C - LV - 9/17
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 46% Dan Sullivan (Inc) 41% After RCV: Peltola +6 2024 Trump +13.1 Fabrizio/Impact #A - LV - 9/11
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 46% Dan Sullivan (Inc) 41% After RCV: Peltola +6 2024 Trump +13.1 Fabrizio/Impact #A - LV - 9/11
New - Alaska Senate (RCV) Field 39% Dan Sullivan (Inc) 39% Daniel J. Sullivan 7% Heikes 6% Rasmussen - LV - 9/13-9/14
Live: Trump says he'll campaign for Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska
Live: Trump says he’ll campaign for Alaska’s GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who’s facing another Dan Sullivan
Live: Trump says he will travel to Alaska to campaign for GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan
Live: Trump said that he would travel to Alaska in the month before the Senate election to give the incumbent Republican senator, Dan S. Sullivan, a boost against his Democratic challenger, Dan J. Sullivan, whom he disparaged as a “phony.”
President Trump says he will go to Alaska to campaign for incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan
Live: In Alaska’s Senate primary, it’s Dan Sullivan vs. Dan Sullivan
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 53% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 47% Data For Progress 605 Likely Voters 7/28-8/4
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 53% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 47% Data For Progress 605 Likely Voters 7/28-8/4
Live: Trump wants Alaska voters to know exactly which Dan Sullivan he supports in their state's Senate race
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.