Alaska Senate Election Winner

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Market pricing makes Mary Peltola the favorite at 65% across 29 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

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24 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Sen. Dan Sullivanms.now94%match43¢-19%
Live: In Alaska’s Senate primary, it’s Dan Sullivan vs. Dan Sullivan
Mary Peltolathepoliticalhq97%match49¢+33%
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 53% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 47% Data For Progress 605 Likely Voters 7/28-8/4
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 53% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 47% Data For Progress 605 Likely Voters 7/28-8/4
Sen. Dan Sullivannbcnews.com93%match49¢-29%
Live: Trump wants Alaska voters to know exactly which Dan Sullivan he supports in their state's Senate race
Senator Dan Sullivan is doing a fantastic job representing the Great State of Alaska! Prior to becoming a very distinguished and Highly Respected Senator, Dan served as State Attorney General and the Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources. Dan is a GREAT man, has ALWAYS delivered for Alaska (which I won three times by BIG margins in 2016, 2020, and 2024!), and will continue doing so in the U.S. Senate. No one has done more for Alaska than “TRUMP,” including just securing 11 new Arctic Security Cutter Icebreakers, the first such ships bought in more than 40 years, and Dan Sullivan has been with us all the way. He is fighting hard to Grow our Economy, Lower Taxes, Cut Regulations, Help Secure our VERY Secure (Record Setting!) Border, Champion our Incredible Military/Veterans, Advance American Energy DOMINANCE by helping to keep the price of Gasoline, Oil, and all forms of Energy VERY LOW, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment. Because of the trickery in the Voting, the Crooked, Radical Left Dumocrats have put up another man named “Dan Sullivan,” and they did this to take Votes away from our Great Senator of the same name. Democrats are trying to “trick” Alaskans, and treat Alaskan Voters with contempt. On Tuesday, August 18th, Alaskans, don’t be fooled. The Senator you want to vote for is: “SULLIVAN, DAN S. — REGISTERED REPUBLICAN/INCUMBENT” “SULLIVAN, DAN S” has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election – HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Mary PeltolaAxios99%match50¢-30%
Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan raises $1.4 million in Q4
Sen. Dan SullivanAxios99%match49¢-29%
Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan raises $1.4 million in Q4
Richard GraysonAxios99%match100¢
Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan raises $1.4 million in Q4
Mary PeltolaPOLITICO99%match48¢+35%
NEW: Former Rep. Mary Peltola raked in $1.5 million in the first 24 hours of her Alaska Senate bid. Details on the donations, first in @politico
Mary PeltolaBloomberg99%match51¢+27%
Former Alaska Representative Mary Peltola launched a campaign Monday to challenge Republican Dan Sullivan for one of Alaska’s Senate seats, putting the race in play for Democrats in November’s midterms
Sen. Dan SullivanBloomberg99%match53¢+23%
Former Alaska Representative Mary Peltola launched a campaign Monday to challenge Republican Dan Sullivan for one of Alaska’s Senate seats, putting the race in play for Democrats in November’s midterms
Mary PeltolaAxios99%match51¢+27%
Mary Peltola plunges into Alaska Senate race Via @HansNichols
Ann DienerAxios98%match97¢+3%
Mary Peltola plunges into Alaska Senate race Via @HansNichols
Mary PeltolaThe New York Times99%match50¢+30%
Breaking News: Mary Peltola announced that she would run for Senate in Alaska, lifting Democrats’ hopes as they face a tough midterm map.
Ann DienerThe New York Times98%match96¢+4%
Breaking News: Mary Peltola announced that she would run for Senate in Alaska, lifting Democrats’ hopes as they face a tough midterm map.
Mary PeltolaAxios99%match50¢+30%
Mary Peltola plunges into Alaska Senate race
Ann DienerAxios99%match96¢+4%
Mary Peltola plunges into Alaska Senate race
Mary PeltolaThe Wall Street Journal99%match50¢+30%
Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola said she would challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, a move that could put the red-leaning state in play as Democrats make a long-shot bid to retake control of the Senate
Sen. Dan SullivanThe Wall Street Journal99%match53¢+23%
Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola said she would challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, a move that could put the red-leaning state in play as Democrats make a long-shot bid to retake control of the Senate
Ann DienerThe Wall Street Journal98%match96¢+4%
Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola said she would challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, a move that could put the red-leaning state in play as Democrats make a long-shot bid to retake control of the Senate
Mary PeltolaPOLITICO99%match50¢+30%
Former Rep. Mary Peltola jumps into Alaska Senate race
Ann DienerPOLITICO98%match96¢+4%
Former Rep. Mary Peltola jumps into Alaska Senate race
Mary PeltolaFirst Squawk99%match50¢+30%
DEMOCRATIC MARY PELTOLA ANNOUNCES SENATE RUN IN ALASKA: CNN
Ann DienerFirst Squawk98%match96¢+4%
DEMOCRATIC MARY PELTOLA ANNOUNCES SENATE RUN IN ALASKA: CNN

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

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