Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
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Market pricing makes Peltola 3-6% the favorite at 88% across 12 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
18 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 52% Dan Sullivan 48% Last poll - Peltola +2 Alaska Survey Research - 11/1
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 52% Dan Sullivan 48% Last poll - Peltola +2 Alaska Survey Research - 11/1
Two Dan Sullivans vie for Alaska Senate seat, creating confusion among some voters • • Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola, in a tight race against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, stands accused of recruiting another Dan Sullivan to run in order to create ballot confusion and siphon off votes from the senator. US President Donald Trump cried foul following the revelations first made by The New York Times, as the crucial race could cost his party its Senate majority
Two Dan Sullivans vie for Alaska Senate seat, creating confusion among some voters • • Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola, in a tight race against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, stands accused of recruiting another Dan Sullivan to run in order to create ballot confusion and siphon off votes from the senator. US President Donald Trump cried foul following the revelations first made by The New York Times, as the crucial race could cost his party its Senate majority
Live: At an Election Day Eve event at a brewery outside Anchorage, Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska, a Republican, devoted the majority of his remarks to rehashing a New York Times article detailing how the campaign of his Democratic opponent, Mary Peltola, played a role in recruiting spoiler candidates, including another Dan Sullivan, onto the Senate ballot who might siphon votes away from him. President Trump has accused Democrats in Alaska of voter fraud. Senator Sullivan stopped short of accusing his opponent of illegal behavior, though he said he’d already met a handful of people who accidentally voted for the wrong Dan Sullivan.
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 45% Atlas Intel Likely Voters 10/28-11/1
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 45% Atlas Intel Likely Voters 10/28-11/1
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) 45% AtlasIntel (A) - LV - 11/1
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 50% Dan Sullivan (Inc) 45% AtlasIntel (A) - LV - 11/1
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/2): Alaska • • Alaska's Senate race Leans Democratic. • • Mary Peltola has a 61% chance of winning the election. • • In our polling average, Peltola leads by a margin of 1.4%.
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/2): Alaska • • Alaska's Senate race Leans Democratic. • • Mary Peltola has a 61% chance of winning the election. • • In our polling average, Peltola leads by a margin of 1.4%.
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/2): Alaska • • Alaska's Senate race Leans Democratic. • • Mary Peltola has a 61% chance of winning the election. • • In our polling average, Peltola leads by a margin of 1.4%.
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 50% Dan Sullivan 50% InsiderAdvantage (A) - LV - 11/1
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 48% Dan Sullivan 46% Siena (B+)
New - Senate poll - Alaska Mary Peltola 48% Dan Sullivan 46% Siena (B+)
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 48% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 46% New York Times/Siena University 610 Likely Voters 10/23-11/1
Alaska US Senate Poll Mary Peltola - 48% Dan Sullivan (Inc) - 46% New York Times/Siena University 610 Likely Voters 10/23-11/1
AARP poll has Alaska races after RCV as • • Senate: Peltola +6 • House: Begich +14 • •
What is this event about?
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.