Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026? Odds fell to 39% on Sep 14, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 60.3¢ to 39.1¢ (-21.2 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match60.3¢
+30m36.6¢
+1h39.1¢
+24h18.1¢
1h move-21.2 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 14, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 60.9¢ → 39.1¢-21.8 ptsafter a signal from News

What moved the odds?

NeutralNews98%match
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since November 1982, dropping to 285 million barrels by the end of the week ending September 11, according to the country's Energy Department.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$48K

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Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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