Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026? Odds fell to 39% on Sep 14, 2026

OpenMove

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 60.3¢ to 39.1¢ (-21.2 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News.

How did the odds move?

At match60.3¢
+30m36.6¢
+1h39.1¢
1h move-21.2 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralNews98%match
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since November 1982, dropping to 285 million barrels by the end of the week ending September 11, according to the country's Energy Department.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 55% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES55¢
NO45¢

Vol$36K

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Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.