Will United Russia (ER) win 50-55% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election? Odds jumped to 38% on Sep 20, 2026

OpenMove

Will United Russia (ER) win 50-55% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 21¢ to 38¢ (+17 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Russian Media.

How did the odds move?

At match21¢
+5m21.5¢
+30m15¢
+1h38¢
1h move+17 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 21.5¢ → 40¢+18.5 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
  • 21.5¢ → 40¢+18.5 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
  • 14¢ → 23¢+9 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
  • 14¢ → 23¢+9 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NoRussian Media98%match
United Russia has received 57.03% of the vote in the State Duma elections after a third of the ballots have been processed. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) has received 13.94%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) has received 9.25%, New People has received 8.03%, and A Just Russia has received 5.21%. #elections2026
NeutralRussian Media98%match
United Russia has received 56.97% of the vote in the State Duma elections, with nearly 33% of the ballots processed, according to the Central Election Commission. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has 13.95%, The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia has 9.26%, New People has 8.06%, A Just Russia has 5.22%. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: After processing a quarter of the protocols, United Russia received 57.04% of the votes in the State Duma elections, reported the head of the Central Election Commission, Ella Pamfilova. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has 13.92%, The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia has 9.31%, New People has 8.01%, A Just Russia has 5.22%. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS app | Android]

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES7¢
NO94¢

Vol$7K

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Will United Russia (ER) win 50-55% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Russia Election: United Russia (ER) Vote Share? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.