Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in August 2026? Odds fell to 5% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in August 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 36.5¢ to 5¢ (-31.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nikkei.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match36.5¢
+5m36.5¢
+30m36.5¢
+1h5¢
+24h28.5¢
1h move-31.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralnikkei.com95%match
North Korea launches ballistic missile, possibly in response to US-South Korea military exercises; this is its second launch in August.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$34K

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Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in August 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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