Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?

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This hub tracks 4 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

3+100%
<10%
10%
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What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

3+nikkei.com94%match62¢+61%
North Korea launches ballistic missile, possibly in response to US-South Korea military exercises; this is its second launch in August.
2iranintl92%match37¢-100%
North Korea has test-fired ballistic missiles for the second time in six days. South Korea and Japan have condemned the move, with Seoul calling for an immediate halt to the launches, which violate UN Security Council resolutions. The launch comes days before joint South Korean-US military exercises. At the same time, 40 countries have called for advance notification of some ballistic missile launches and space launchers.
<1money.udn.com91%match95¢+5%
North Korea launches ballistic missile for the sixth time this year.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

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