Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 51% on Jul 15, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 43¢ to 51¢ (+8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from tools.cdc.gov. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match43¢
+5m58¢
+30m47¢
+1h51¢
+24h55.5¢
1h move+8 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutraltools.cdc.gov99%match
CDC: Transcript - Update on CDC's Cyclosporiasis Response - 7/14/26

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$10K

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Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by July 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.