Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? Odds jumped to 85% on Sep 13, 2026
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Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? On , the market’s odds jumped from 71.5¢ to 84.5¢ (+13 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from theguardian.com.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Sep 13, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 81¢ → 91.5¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from dpa.com
- 86.5¢ → 76.5¢-10 ptsafter a signal from handelsblatt.com
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 92% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Which parties will be in next Swedish Government? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.