Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 37% on Nov 9, 2026

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Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 24.5¢ to 37.3¢ (+12.8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Kan Reporter.

How did the odds move?

At match24.5¢
+5m24.7¢
+30m26¢
+1h37.3¢
1h move+12.8 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Nov 9, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 24.8¢ → 37.5¢+12.7 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Journalist

What moved the odds?

YesKan Reporter97%match
A report in the Iranian Mehr news agency, citing Turkish intelligence chief Ebrahim Kalin, said that a meeting is planned in Qatar next week between US Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei. Kalin described the meeting as having the opportunity to create a breakthrough in talks between Iran and the US. It is important to note that this report has not been confirmed by other sources. @itamargalit

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 27% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES27¢
NO73¢

Vol$34K

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Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.