Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? Odds fell to 22% on Sep 29, 2026

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Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 37.8¢ to 21.5¢ (-16.3 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Iran State News Agency.

How did the odds move?

At match37.8¢
+5m38.8¢
+30m37.8¢
+1h21.5¢
1h move-16.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralIran State News Agency96%match
Qatar: The only solution to the Iran-US crisis is diplomacy and dialogue Majid Al-Ansari, spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, emphasized the continuation of Doha's mediation efforts between Tehran and Washington, and announced the continuation of consultations and exchange of messages between the two sides to create a common ground. #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 34% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES34¢
NO66¢

Vol$5K

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Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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