Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 90% on Sep 22, 2026

OpenMove

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 61.5¢ to 90¢ (+28.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Bloomberg Reporter.

How did the odds move?

At match61.5¢
+5m71¢
+30m88.5¢
+1h90¢
1h move+28.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 22, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 71¢ → 95¢+24 ptsafter a signal from CNN Reporter
  • 64.5¢ → 94.5¢+30 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
  • 77.5¢ → 95.5¢+18 ptsafter a signal from Israel Hayom
  • 77.5¢ → 95.5¢+18 ptsafter a signal from i24 Reporter
  • 77.5¢ → 95.5¢+18 ptsafter a signal from israelhayomheb
  • 77.5¢ → 95.5¢+18 ptsafter a signal from israelhayomheb
  • 86.5¢ → 97.4¢+10.9 ptsafter a signal from CBS Reporter
  • 89.5¢ → 98¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from Guardian Reporter
  • 87.5¢ → 98.7¢+11.2 ptsafter a signal from citrinowicz
  • 79¢ → 98.9¢+19.9 ptsafter a signal from French Media
  • 89.5¢ → 98.9¢+9.4 ptsafter a signal from Axios Reporter

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesBloomberg Reporter97%match
New: Trump says that American officials including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian officials here on the sidelines of the UN. Trump said they had a good meeting; Witkoff was reluctant to discuss it but said “I feel very good right now.”
YesCNN Reporter94%match
The president said that US officials including Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner met with Iranian officials here on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. • • Trump called it a good meeting

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 99% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES99¢
NO1¢

Vol$61K

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Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.