Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Odds fell to 13% on Sep 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? On , the market’s odds fell from 31.5¢ to 12.5¢ (-19 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match31.5¢
+5m16¢
+30m18.5¢
+1h12.5¢
1h move-19 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 15.5¢ → 1.6¢-13.9 ptsafter a signal from franceinfo.fr
  • 12¢ → 1.6¢-10.4 ptsafter a signal from spiegel.de
  • 18.5¢ → 0.7¢-17.8 ptsafter a signal from dpa.com

What moved the odds?

YesReuters97%match
Germany’s Centre-Left SPD Projected to Win 35.5% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania State Election - Exit Poll

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$882K

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Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.