Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Odds jumped to 78% on Oct 11, 2026
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Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 60¢ to 78¢ (+18 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from leparisien.fr.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Oct 11, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 60¢ → 86.5¢+26.5 ptsafter a signal from lefigaro.fr
- 69¢ → 86.5¢+17.5 ptsafter a signal from franceinfo.fr
- 77¢ → 86.5¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from franceinfo.fr
- 77¢ → 86.5¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from leparisien.fr
- 78¢ → 86.5¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from rfi.fr
- 78¢ → 86.5¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from rfi.fr
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 84% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.