Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by at least 20%? Odds jumped to 30% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by at least 20%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 4.2¢ to 29.5¢ (+25.3 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match4.2¢
+5m10.8¢
+30m39.4¢
+1h29.5¢
+24h37.6¢
1h move+25.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 10.8¢ → 29.5¢+18.7 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 38.7¢ → 29.5¢-9.2 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 39.2¢ → 29.5¢-9.6 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 39.8¢ → 29.5¢-10.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 29.5¢ → 43.8¢+14.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 29.5¢ → 59.2¢+29.7 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 29.5¢ → 61.2¢+31.7 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 29.6¢ → 60.1¢+30.5 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 29.6¢ → 60.1¢+30.5 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 29.6¢ → 60.1¢+30.5 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 29.6¢ → 60.1¢+30.5 ptsafter a signal from Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) is projected to deliver a key victory for progressives and defeat Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) in the Democratic primary for retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s (D-Minn.) seat, according to Decision Desk HQ. Flanagan ran against five other Democrats for the party’s nod, though Craig was her most formidable challenger. Flanagan will now face former NFL…
  • 29.6¢ → 60.1¢+30.5 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 0% in): Minnesota US Senate Democratic Primary • • Peggy Flanagan (D): 133 (54.7%) • Angie Craig (D): 95 (39.1%) • • Follow more results here: •
NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 5% in): Minnesota US Senate Democratic Primary • • Peggy Flanagan (D): 17,425 (57.0%) • Angie Craig (D): 12,654 (41.4%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$2K

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Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by at least 20%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.