Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

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DDHQ has more in our roundup of the Aug 11 primaries: • -#MNSen Dem primary: progressive Peggy Flanagan beat Angie Craig • -#SCSen GOP primary: Darline Graham & Ralph Norman go to Aug. 25 runoff • -9 more races in WI, MN, SC, CT, AL, VT! • • Read our roundup: •
DDHQ has more in our roundup of the Aug 11 primaries: • -#MNSen Dem primary: progressive Peggy Flanagan beat Angie Craig • -#SCSen GOP primary: Darline Graham & Ralph Norman go to Aug. 25 runoff • -9 more races in WI, MN, SC, CT, AL, VT! • • Read our roundup: •
DDHQ has more in our roundup of the Aug 11 primaries: • -#MNSen Dem primary: progressive Peggy Flanagan beat Angie Craig • -#SCSen GOP primary: Darline Graham & Ralph Norman go to Aug. 25 runoff • -9 more races in WI, MN, SC, CT, AL, VT! • • Read our roundup: •
With nearly all votes in, Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan has a nearly 20-point margin over over Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary. • • Polls had indicated a close race, but Flanagan secured margins of around 30 points in Ramsey and Hennepin counties.
With nearly all votes in, Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan has a nearly 20-point margin over over Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary. • • Polls had indicated a close race, but Flanagan secured margins of around 30 points in Ramsey and Hennepin counties.
With nearly all votes in, Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan has a nearly 20-point margin over over Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary. • • Polls had indicated a close race, but Flanagan secured margins of around 30 points in Ramsey and Hennepin counties.
With nearly all votes in, Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan has a nearly 20-point margin over over Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary. • • Polls had indicated a close race, but Flanagan secured margins of around 30 points in Ramsey and Hennepin counties.
Craig <5%Semafor Reporter96%match96¢+4%
Reps. Craig and Stevens losing in their primaries definitely rhymes -- Two 2018ers who flipped House seats falling to more progressive candidates • • But the swing in the actual makeup of Senate Democratic Caucus would be far more pronounced in Michigan if Abdul El-Sayed wins • • Michigan would go from centrist Peters to progressive AES (Peters endorsed Stevens over AES) • • Minnesota would go from progressive Smith to progressive Flanagan (Smith endorsed Flanagan over Craig)
Reps. Craig and Stevens losing in their primaries definitely rhymes -- Two 2018ers who flipped House seats falling to more progressive candidates • • But the swing in the actual makeup of Senate Democratic Caucus would be far more pronounced in Michigan if Abdul El-Sayed wins • • Michigan would go from centrist Peters to progressive AES (Peters endorsed Stevens over AES) • • Minnesota would go from progressive Smith to progressive Flanagan (Smith endorsed Flanagan over Craig)
Craig 20%+Semafor Reporter96%match97¢+3%
Reps. Craig and Stevens losing in their primaries definitely rhymes -- Two 2018ers who flipped House seats falling to more progressive candidates • • But the swing in the actual makeup of Senate Democratic Caucus would be far more pronounced in Michigan if Abdul El-Sayed wins • • Michigan would go from centrist Peters to progressive AES (Peters endorsed Stevens over AES) • • Minnesota would go from progressive Smith to progressive Flanagan (Smith endorsed Flanagan over Craig)
Flanagan is winning by 20 • • 2 of the 3 most recent polls had the race a tie • • Guessing would almost certainly be more accurate
Live: Progressive Peggy Flanagan sweeps Minnesota Senate primary in race defined by anti-ICE anger
Live: Progressive Peggy Flanagan sweeps Minnesota Senate primary in race defined by anti-ICE anger
Flanagan <5%theguardian.com97%match95¢+5%
Live: Progressive Peggy Flanagan sweeps Minnesota Senate primary in race defined by anti-ICE anger
Craig <5%nytimes.com98%match99¢+1%
Live: Speaking to a small group of supporters in St. Paul, Representative Angie Craig said she had called Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to concede Minnesota’s Democratic primary for Senate and offer her support. “My top priority is making sure we beat MAGA-Michele Tafoya and hold this Senate seat in November,” Craig said, referring to the Republican nominee.
Craig 5–10%nytimes.com98%match95¢+5%
Live: Speaking to a small group of supporters in St. Paul, Representative Angie Craig said she had called Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to concede Minnesota’s Democratic primary for Senate and offer her support. “My top priority is making sure we beat MAGA-Michele Tafoya and hold this Senate seat in November,” Craig said, referring to the Republican nominee.
Craig 10–15%nytimes.com98%match70¢+43%
Live: Speaking to a small group of supporters in St. Paul, Representative Angie Craig said she had called Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to concede Minnesota’s Democratic primary for Senate and offer her support. “My top priority is making sure we beat MAGA-Michele Tafoya and hold this Senate seat in November,” Craig said, referring to the Republican nominee.
Craig 20%+nytimes.com98%match75¢+33%
Live: Speaking to a small group of supporters in St. Paul, Representative Angie Craig said she had called Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to concede Minnesota’s Democratic primary for Senate and offer her support. “My top priority is making sure we beat MAGA-Michele Tafoya and hold this Senate seat in November,” Craig said, referring to the Republican nominee.
Craig <5%cnn.com96%match99¢+1%
Live: Rep. Angie Craig expresses gratitude despite loss in Senate Democratic primary
Craig 5–10%cnn.com96%match95¢+5%
Live: Rep. Angie Craig expresses gratitude despite loss in Senate Democratic primary
Craig 10–15%cnn.com96%match70¢+43%
Live: Rep. Angie Craig expresses gratitude despite loss in Senate Democratic primary
Craig 15–20%cnn.com96%match100¢
Live: Rep. Angie Craig expresses gratitude despite loss in Senate Democratic primary
Craig 20%+cnn.com97%match75¢+33%
Live: Rep. Angie Craig expresses gratitude despite loss in Senate Democratic primary
Craig <5%NYT Reporter92%match99¢+1%
Angie Craig outspent Peggy Flanagan by over a four-to-one margin and lost.
Craig 5–10%NYT Reporter92%match95¢+5%
Angie Craig outspent Peggy Flanagan by over a four-to-one margin and lost.
Craig 20%+NYT Reporter92%match75¢+33%
Angie Craig outspent Peggy Flanagan by over a four-to-one margin and lost.
Flanagan <5%theguardian.com97%match80¢+25%
Progressive Peggy Flanagan sweeps Minnesota Senate primary in race defined by anti-ICE anger
Craig 5–10%CBS Reporter97%match95¢+5%
A @cbsnews PROJECTION: @peggyflanagan defeats @AngieCraigMN in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary. Flanagan will face Republican @Michele_Tafoya in November.
Craig 5–10%CNN Reporter98%match95¢+5%
Peggy Flanagan will defeat Angie Craig in the #MNSEN Democratic primary, CNN projects
Craig 20%+CNN Reporter98%match75¢+33%
Peggy Flanagan will defeat Angie Craig in the #MNSEN Democratic primary, CNN projects

What is this event about?

Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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