Will Matt Schultz advance from the AK-AL primary election? Odds jumped to 78% on Aug 19, 2026

OpenMove

Will Matt Schultz advance from the AK-AL primary election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 51.8¢ to 77.6¢ (+25.8 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ).

How did the odds move?

At match51.8¢
+5m51.8¢
+30m51.8¢
+1h77.6¢
+24h95.6¢
1h move+25.8 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 19, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 51.8¢ → 77.6¢+25.8 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 51.8¢ → 88¢+36.2 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 77.6¢ → 88¢+10.4 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 77.6¢ → 88¢+10.4 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 33% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 20,856 (46.0%) • Bill Hill (N): 13,915 (30.7%) • Matt Schultz (D): 3,777 (8.3%) • Eric Hafner (D): 1,822 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 61% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 40,419 (47.8%) • Bill Hill (N): 24,937 (29.5%) • Matt Schultz (D): 6,805 (8.1%) • Eric Hafner (D): 3,188 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES4¢
NO96¢

Vol$11K

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Will Matt Schultz advance from the AK-AL primary election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Alaska At-Large Primary Winners — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.