Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Odds jumped to 39% on Jul 7, 2026

OpenMove

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 18¢ to 39¢ (+21 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from J.Post / i24 Reporter.

How did the odds move?

At match18¢
+5m32.5¢
+30m15.5¢
+1h39¢
+24h88¢
1h move+21 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 25.5¢ → 33.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from Channel 12 (N12)
  • 15.5¢ → 25.5¢+10 ptsafter a signal from J.Post / i24 Reporter
  • 15.5¢ → 33¢+17.5 ptsafter a signal from 47news.jp
  • 15.5¢ → 32.5¢+17 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
  • 25.5¢ → 36¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from 47news.jp
  • 27.5¢ → 37.5¢+10 ptsafter a signal from Iran State News Agency
  • 26.5¢ → 39.5¢+13 ptsafter a signal from news.tv-asahi.co.jp
  • 56.5¢ → 92.5¢+36 ptsafter a signal from French Media
  • 68¢ → 92¢+24 ptsafter a signal from French Media
  • 70.5¢ → 92¢+21.5 ptsafter a signal from French Media
  • 58¢ → 92¢+34 ptsafter a signal from israelnews23
  • 58¢ → 92¢+34 ptsafter a signal from Al Jazeera

What moved the odds?

NoJ.Post / i24 Reporter99%match
Le Pen will not be able to run in the 2027 presidential election following the corruption scandal [in reply to: In the next hour: French court decision - will right-wing leader Marine Le Pen be able to run in the presidential election next year. At 4:00 PM: British right-wing leader Nigel Farage will make a statement on his "political future"]

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 88% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES88¢
NO13¢

Vol$27K

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Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.