Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Odds fell to 41% on Sep 23, 2026
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Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? On , the market’s odds fell from 56.5¢ to 40.5¢ (-16 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from ppollingnumbers.
How did the odds move?
56.5¢
46.5¢
45.5¢
40.5¢
-16 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Noppollingnumbers98%match
New - Mayor poll - Los Angeles Nithya Raman 39% Karen Bass (Inc) 28% Berkeley IGS #B - LV - 9/20
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 41% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES41¢
NO59¢
$1.2M
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Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Los Angeles Mayoral Election — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.