Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%? Odds jumped to 50% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 36.1¢ to 49.6¢ (+13.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Politico Reporter. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match36.1¢
+5m36.4¢
+30m26.9¢
+1h49.6¢
+24h0.3¢
1h move+13.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 36.4¢ → 48.2¢+11.8 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 36.6¢ → 53¢+16.4 ptsafter a signal from cnn.com
  • 19.6¢ → 53.3¢+33.7 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com
  • 20.2¢ → 53.2¢+33.1 ptsafter a signal from CNN Reporter
  • 31.2¢ → 53.2¢+22 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 31.2¢ → 53.2¢+22 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
  • 31.2¢ → 53.2¢+22 ptsafter a signal from apnews.com
  • 53.2¢ → 13¢-40.2 ptsafter a signal from dbws.io
  • 53.2¢ → 15.6¢-37.6 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 15.8¢ → 0.3¢-15.4 ptsafter a signal from A hard-fought Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor between Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong remained too close to call early Wednesday morning – one of Tuesday’s marquee races testing voters’ attitudes over the direction of the party. Crowley, who enjoys Gov. Tony Evers’s (D) endorsement, led Hong by just shy of 3,000…

What moved the odds?

NeutralPolitico Reporter96%match
WI dems were watching to see how much state Sen. Kelda Roys split the Dane County vote - dems note she's currently holding Francesca Hong down a fair amount there • •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$19K

Follow this market

Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.