Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%? Odds fell to 5% on Aug 12, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%? On , the market’s odds fell from 18.1¢ to 5.1¢ (-13 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 21.6¢ → 2.6¢-18.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 21.6¢ → 2.6¢-18.9 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
- 21.6¢ → 2.6¢-18.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 21.6¢ → 2.6¢-19 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 16.4¢ → 2.6¢-13.8 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 14.6¢ → 2.6¢-12 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 13.2¢ → 2.6¢-10.6 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 15.4¢ → 1.3¢-14 ptsafter a signal from Politico Reporter
- 15.1¢ → 1.3¢-13.7 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
- 14.8¢ → 1.3¢-13.5 ptsafter a signal from cnn.com
- 15¢ → 1.3¢-13.6 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
What moved the odds?
Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
$32K
Follow this market
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.