Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Odds jumped to 99% on Aug 11, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? On , the market’s odds jumped from 70.5¢ to 99.4¢ (+28.9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match70.5¢
+5m79¢
+30m90.5¢
+1h99.4¢
+24h99.3¢
1h move+28.9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 11, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 83.5¢ → 99.5¢+16 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 89.5¢ → 99.9¢+10.4 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

Yesnytimes.com96%match
Live: Darline Graham led in four of five polls fielded since President Trump endorsed her run to replace her brother, Lindsey Graham, as the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina. But with a fractured field of 10 candidates, she did not reach the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff in any of the polls.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$542K

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Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.