Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Odds fell to 1% on Sep 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? On , the market’s odds fell from 11.5¢ to 1.1¢ (-10.4 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from welt.de. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match11.5¢
+5m11.5¢
+30m2¢
+1h1.1¢
1h move-10.4 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralwelt.de94%match
Elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Merz announces a statement shortly after 6 p.m. – he is following the elections live at CDU party headquarters.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$459K

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Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Berlin State Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.