Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Odds fell to 32% on Sep 24, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 41¢ to 32¢ (-9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from iranintl. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match41¢
+5m41¢
+30m39.5¢
+1h32¢
+24h28¢
1h move-9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 24, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 44¢ → 34¢-10 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya

What moved the odds?

Yesiranintl97%match
Israel's Channel 12 reported that officials from the Islamic Republic and the United States had held indirect talks. According to the report, Jared Kushner and Steve Whittaker, representatives of the Trump administration, were in one room and Abbas Araqchi, the Islamic Republic's Foreign Minister, was in another room, and Qatari mediators conveyed the messages and points of view of both sides. Channel 12 added that the Strait of Hormuz was one of the main axes of these talks. Interview with Babak Eshaghi, Iran International correspondent

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$242K

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Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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