US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? Odds jumped to 36% on Jul 10, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 21.5¢ to 36¢ (+14.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from aljazeera.com. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Jul 10, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 17.5¢ → 28.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
- 25¢ → 16¢-9 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
- 25¢ → 16¢-9 ptsafter a signal from News
- 26.5¢ → 16¢-10.5 ptsafter a signal from sharghdaily
- 26.5¢ → 18.5¢-8 ptsafter a signal from Jordanian Media
- 36¢ → 21.5¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from Al Arabiya
- 36.5¢ → 22¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed
- 36.5¢ → 22¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
- 35¢ → 22¢-13 ptsafter a signal from iranintl
- 28.5¢ → 20.5¢-8 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
- 28.5¢ → 20.5¢-8 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
- 14.5¢ → 24.5¢+10 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
What moved the odds?
Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Next round of US-Iran peace talks — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.