US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Odds jumped to 63% on Aug 4, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 54.5¢ to 62.5¢ (+8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from money.udn.com. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 4, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 55¢ → 66¢+11 ptsafter a signal from abkt198990
- 54¢ → 65.5¢+11.5 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
- 52.5¢ → 65.5¢+13 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
- 53.5¢ → 65.5¢+12 ptsafter a signal from Iran's judiciary-run Mizan
- 60¢ → 77.5¢+17.5 ptsafter a signal from Ukrainian Media
- 62.5¢ → 76.5¢+14 ptsafter a signal from alarabytv
- 62.5¢ → 76.5¢+14 ptsafter a signal from biz.chosun.com
- 62.5¢ → 76¢+13.5 ptsafter a signal from franceinfo.fr
- 63.5¢ → 76.5¢+13 ptsafter a signal from chosun.com
- 66¢ → 76.5¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from timesofisrael.com
- 66¢ → 76.5¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
- 65.5¢ → 78¢+12.5 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
$366K
Follow this market
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.