US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Odds jumped to 63% on Aug 4, 2026
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US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 54.5¢ to 62.5¢ (+8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from money.udn.com.
How did the odds move?
54.5¢
54.5¢
53.5¢
62.5¢
72.5¢
+8 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 4, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 55¢ → 66¢+11 ptsafter a signal from abkt198990
- 54¢ → 65.5¢+11.5 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
- 52.5¢ → 65.5¢+13 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
- 53.5¢ → 65.5¢+12 ptsafter a signal from Iran's judiciary-run Mizan
- 60¢ → 77.5¢+17.5 ptsafter a signal from Ukrainian Media
- 62.5¢ → 76.5¢+14 ptsafter a signal from alarabytv
- 62.5¢ → 76.5¢+14 ptsafter a signal from biz.chosun.com
- 62.5¢ → 76¢+13.5 ptsafter a signal from franceinfo.fr
- 63.5¢ → 76.5¢+13 ptsafter a signal from chosun.com
- 66¢ → 76.5¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from timesofisrael.com
- 66¢ → 76.5¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
- 65.5¢ → 78¢+12.5 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
What moved the odds?
Yesmoney.udn.com94%match
US Treasury Secretary: US and Iran expected to reach agreement on April 4 or 5 to restore free passage through the Strait of Hormuz
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
$337K
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US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.