US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Odds jumped to 70% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? On , the market’s odds jumped from 59.5¢ to 69.5¢ (+10 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from entekhab_news. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match59.5¢
+5m59.5¢
+30m67¢
+1h69.5¢
+24h47.5¢
1h move+10 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 59.5¢ → 69.5¢+10 ptsafter a signal from abkt198990
  • 60¢ → 71¢+11 ptsafter a signal from Walter Bloomberg

What moved the odds?

Yesentekhab_news95%match
CNN quotes a senior official from the Persian Gulf states: The probability of the US and Iran reaching an agreement by Friday is "50-50" An agreement on the Strait of Hormuz may even be reached today

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$369K

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US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.