US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Odds jumped to 59% on Aug 4, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? On , the market’s odds jumped from 47¢ to 58.5¢ (+11.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from abkt198990. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 4, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 47¢ → 58¢+11 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
- 47¢ → 59.5¢+12.5 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
- 45.5¢ → 63¢+17.5 ptsafter a signal from Iran's judiciary-run Mizan
- 46¢ → 59¢+13 ptsafter a signal from Ukrainian Media
- 53¢ → 62¢+9 ptsafter a signal from alarabytv
- 52.5¢ → 62¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from biz.chosun.com
What moved the odds?
Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
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US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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