Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? Odds fell to 27% on Aug 22, 2026
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Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 62¢ to 26.5¢ (-35.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Reuters.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 22, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 74.5¢ → 25.5¢-49 ptsafter a signal from Bloomberg Reporter
- 74.5¢ → 25.5¢-49 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
- 68.5¢ → 25.5¢-43 ptsafter a signal from CBS Reporter
- 54.5¢ → 25.5¢-29 ptsafter a signal from Al Jazeera
- 42.5¢ → 25.5¢-17 ptsafter a signal from Asharq
- 44¢ → 25.5¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
- 43.5¢ → 25.5¢-18 ptsafter a signal from Globe and Mail Reporter
- 43.5¢ → 25.5¢-18 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
- 42¢ → 25.5¢-16.5 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
- 15.5¢ → 26.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from asahi.com
- 20.5¢ → 28.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from Iran State News Agency
- 20.5¢ → 29¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from zerohedge
What moved the odds?
Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Tariff increase on Canada in effect — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.