Tariff increase on Canada in effect
Open2as of
Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 9% across 2 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The Trump administration escalated economic pressure Monday, seeking to isolate Iran from its trade partners and imposing 50% tariffs on Canada.
The comments came after Trump announced new 50% tariffs on Canadian cars, auto parts and steel starting next year, and 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods starting Saturday.
Trump announces tariffs on Canadian vehicles, steel in escalation of trade war
The Canadian dollar fell 0.58% against the US dollar after trade talks between Ottawa and Washington collapsed. The United States imposed tariffs of 50% on nearly $20 billion worth of Canadian imports on Saturday, targeting the US's second-largest trading partner after Mexico. Affected goods include dairy products, lumber, furniture, cement, ceramics, and a wide range of other products. President Donald Trump also announced that US tariffs on all Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts, and steel would be doubled to 50% starting January 1, 2027. #Arabic_Business
Trump says US to increase tariffs on Canadian cars and steel to 50%
*TRUMP TO RAISE AUTO, STEEL TARIFFS ON CANADA TO 50% • *TRUMP SETS JAN. 1, 2027 FOR 50% CANADA TARIFF HIKE • *TRUMP: CANADA WILL BE TREATED LIKE A STATE NO LONGER • *TRUMP: WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US
Live: What to know about Trump’s 50% tariffs on Canadian goods
The Canadian dollar fell on Monday morning after trade talks between Ottawa and Washington fell apart, leaving both sides facing higher prices on a wide array of imported goods. • • The U.S. on Saturday slapped 50% tariffs on around $20 billion worth of imports from Canada, its second-biggest trading partner after Mexico. The affected goods span dairy, wine, wood products, ceramics and a slew of other areas. • • Read more:
Trump And Canada In Trade ‘War’: How Hockey Sticks, Puzzles And Wigs Played A Role. • A large amount of Canadian imports will now be subject to 50% tariffs.
Canadian Prime Minister Carney threatens to retaliate against the Trump administration's 50% additional tariffs, retaliating with 3.2 trillion yen in tariffs.
NEW: President Trump lashes out at Canada after trade negotiations between the two countries collapse, accusing America's northern neighbor of wanting the "benefits of being a State, without being one." • • The comments come a day after Canadian Prime Minister Carney suspended negotiations with the U.S. and ordered Canada's trade team back to Ottawa as Trump's 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian imports took effect early Saturday.
The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian products early Saturday after last-ditch negotiations failed to resolve the latest strain in already tense relations between the historic allies. Canada's leader said it will retaliate beginning Sept. 8.
What to know about Trump's 50% tariffs on Canadian goods that just went into effect
According to Reuters, Carney said Canada will impose tariffs on imports of American steel, electronics and other products starting September 8 in response to US President Donald Trump's 50% tariffs, which took effect at midnight last night.
US imposes 50% tariffs; Canada responds with equivalent measures.
US IMPOSES 50% TARIFFS ON CANADIAN GOODS, CARNEY SAYS RETALIATION BEGINS SEPT 8 • • The tariffs took effect Saturday morning after talks collapsed Friday, covering roughly $20B in Canadian exports including wine, furniture, dairy, cement, clothing, fishing rods and hockey equipment. • • Carney says Canada will retaliate "dollar for dollar" starting September 8, focused on steel, dairy, agricultural equipment and pulp and paper, with details in the coming days. He says US demands went too far: "They asked too much and offered too little." On energy: "Canada fuels American growth... I don't think they want us to stop sending any of that energy." • • USTR Jamieson Greer says "Canada declined to finalize the trade deal under the terms agreed earlier this week," and that the US had offered significant tariff reductions on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber while Canada maintained prohibitions on certain American goods and services. Greer told Fox News there are no new planned talks. • • Carney said Friday that "last-minute changes in the U.S. proposed terms were unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal." • • The tariffs fall under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which allows duties of up to 50% on countries found to be discriminating against the US. It had not been used since 1949. Trump postponed the original Wednesday deadline hours before it was set to take effect.
US government imposes 50% tariffs on Canada; Prime Minister Carney says "retaliatory measures on September 8th."
[UPDATE] U.S.-Canada trade talks collapse, 50% tariffs go into effect (first reported at 2026-08-22T04:50:24Z)
Canada rejects US conditions; Trump's 50% tariffs go into effect Rejecting the US government's new conditions in trade talks, the Canadian Prime Minister ordered a halt to negotiations with Washington. At the same time, US tariffs of 50% were implemented on more than $20 billion in Canadian goods, once again straining trade relations between the two countries. @YjcNewsChannel
U.S. hits Canada with 50% tariffs, invoking a notorious Great Depression law that has never been used before to impose import taxes
US-Canada trade negotiations have been suspended as President Trump’s 50% tariffs on roughly $28 billion in Canadian goods take effect. • • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney blames the breakdown on "unfair" last-minute changes to Washington's proposed terms and vows dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.
US-Canada trade negotiations have been suspended as President Trump’s 50% tariffs on roughly $28 billion in Canadian goods take effect. • • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney blames the breakdown on "unfair" last-minute changes to Washington's proposed terms and vows dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.
December 31, 2026Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pulled his country’s negotiators from trade talks with the U.S. on Friday evening, just hours before the Trump administration’s new round of tariffs were set to go into effect. This decision followed weeks of intense negotiations between the two nations over President Trump’s proposed 50 percent tariffs on over $20…92%match22¢-59%
Canada rejects US terms for trade deal as 50 percent tariffs take effect
The United States imposed new 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods today after the two longstanding allies failed to reach a trade deal - CNBC
Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada fell apart just before midnight on Friday. • • 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods are now in effect, hitting products ranging from alcohol to hockey skates, @drdesrochers and @_AriHawkins report.
Trump’s 50% tariffs on $20B in Canadian goods take effect after last-minute talks collapsed
US hits some Canadian goods with 50% tariffs after trade talks fail
The US imposed a 50% tariff on Canadian goods after failed negotiations. Ottawa promised to impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods in the coming days. The parties accuse each other of changing the previously agreed terms of the deal. The 50% tariffs from the US affect hundreds of goods worth more than $28 billion - from plywood and cement to wine and hockey sticks, according to CBC. Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that the last-minute American proposals were "unfair, economically unsound, and called into question the credibility of any deal." Zvezdanews on MAX
Canada takes a step to end negotiations following the US decision to impose 50% tariffs ➔ The US imposed a 50% tariff on Canadian products worth approximately $20 billion. ➔ It was reported that the tariffs will affect approximately 5% of the products Canada exports to the US each year. ➔ Canada announced that it will retaliate against these tariffs and that it has decided to suspend trade negotiations with the US. ➔ Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney: Canada will implement these tariffs in kind to protect our workers and businesses.
Trump's trade war with Canada has begun; 50% tariff and threat of retaliation After the failure of trade talks between Washington and Ottawa, the United States imposed a 50% tariff on about $20 billion in Canadian goods; a move that was met with an immediate response from the Canadian government. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that his country would retaliate against the tariffs dollar for dollar to support jobs and workers. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
What is this event about?
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.