Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? Odds fell to 26% on Aug 19, 2026

OpenMove

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 33.5¢ to 25.5¢ (-8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from newsdig.tbs.co.jp.

How did the odds move?

At match33.5¢
+5m33.5¢
+30m33.5¢
+1h25.5¢
+24h30.5¢
1h move-8 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 19, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 33.5¢ → 24.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from Ukrainian Public Broadcaster
  • 33.5¢ → 24.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya

What moved the odds?

Nonewsdig.tbs.co.jp95%match
President Trump announced he had "temporarily suspended" the 50% additional tariff on Canada, halting its implementation at the last minute.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 11% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES11¢
NO90¢

Vol$11K

Follow this market

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Tariff increase on Canada in effect — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.