Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 63% on Jul 21, 2026

OpenMove

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 54¢ to 63¢ (+9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from foxbusiness.

How did the odds move?

At match54¢
+5m55.5¢
+30m56.5¢
+1h63¢
+24h72¢
1h move+9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 21, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 65.5¢ → 73.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from Ukrainian Media
  • 74.5¢ → 65.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from Ukrainska Pravda news outlet
  • 74.5¢ → 65.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from yomiuri.co.jp
  • 70¢ → 81¢+11 ptsafter a signal from ft.com
  • 80.5¢ → 66.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from alarabytv
  • 80.5¢ → 66.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from tvalmasirah
  • 81¢ → 69¢-12 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
  • 81¢ → 69¢-12 ptsafter a signal from ibtimes.com

What moved the odds?

Yesfoxbusiness97%match
The Trump administration is imposing new 50% tariffs on certain Canadian imports, accusing Canada of discriminating against American products. • • Officials said Canada's trade policies have hurt U.S. auto, alcohol and dairy exports while benefiting foreign competitors. • • Among various products, the tariffs will apply to certain alcohol, paper and wood products, sports equipment, milk products, sugars, agricultural goods, chemicals, paints, cosmetics, synthetic materials, leather goods, clothing, footwear and electronics. • • Senior administration officials told FOX Business that products such as wine, hockey sticks and cement will be affected, while energy, potash, fish and critical minerals will be exempt.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES10¢
NO90¢

Vol$11K

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Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Tariff increase on Canada in effect — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.