Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? Odds jumped to 35% on Sep 6, 2026
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Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 24.5¢ to 35¢ (+10.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from iranintl.
How did the odds move?
24.5¢
28.5¢
33¢
35¢
+10.5 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Yesiranintl95%match
US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev on Sunday, September 5. They had held three-hour talks with Vladimir Putin in Moscow the day before.
Zelensky said in the meeting that the goal was to end the war with a "just peace" and prevent a repeat of the aggression against Ukraine. Kushner called the negotiations "very difficult and complicated" and said the goal was to create conditions for a long-term and lasting peace.
The trip was part of the Donald Trump administration's renewed efforts to advance peace talks and end the Russia-Ukraine war.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 35% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES35¢
NO66¢
$259K
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