Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? Odds fell to 35% on Jul 31, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 45¢ to 34.6¢ (-10.4 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Jul 31, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 46.2¢ → 33.7¢-12.5 ptsafter a signal from content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com
- 13.9¢ → 22.4¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from franceinfo.fr
- 21.8¢ → 8.3¢-13.4 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
- 21.8¢ → 8.3¢-13.4 ptsafter a signal from Al Hadath
- 22.3¢ → 8.4¢-13.9 ptsafter a signal from Asharq
- 22.4¢ → 8.5¢-13.8 ptsafter a signal from Al Araby
- 22.4¢ → 8.5¢-13.8 ptsafter a signal from alarabytv
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
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Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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