Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase IIJuly 31

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$58KResolvedas of

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This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

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What moved the odds?

45 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YESalarabytv91%match6¢-100%
The Peace Council and the US President announce an agreement to implement the second phase of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Report by: Yazan Al-Rimawi
YESalhadath92%match13¢-100%
Hamas and other factions agree to hand over civilian rule, complete the Israeli withdrawal, and deploy an international security force: Implementation paths for the Gaza roadmap plan
NOiranintlbrk95%match85¢+18%
Senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad told CNN that Israel must first establish a ceasefire, stop targeted assassinations in Gaza, withdraw its forces to the "yellow line" and allow the entry of large-scale humanitarian aid in accordance with the October ceasefire agreement.
NOiranintlbrk92%match85¢+18%
Israel's UN ambassador, Danny Danon, told CNN that Hamas must be "realistically" disarmed and that "appearance solutions" are not acceptable to Israel. The order of implementation of the steps related to Hamas's disarmament, the delivery of humanitarian aid, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces to the "yellow line" in Gaza could be discussed and agreed upon in future talks with mediators.
YESbfmtv.com91%match6¢-100%
Gaza: What we know about the Hamas disarmament agreement and the withdrawal of Israeli forces
NOalarabiya93%match94¢+6%
The Gaza Peace Council: The second phase of the Trump plan will be implemented within 14 days after all parties agree... and Israel is committed to fulfilling its pledges.
YESIran State News Agency92%match6¢-100%
Hamas: Agreement on the roadmap was reached after a difficult battle in negotiations Following the announcement of an agreement on the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, Bassem Naeem, a member of the Hamas political bureau, said in a statement that the agreement was the result of effort, patience, and a difficult battle in the new negotiations. #IRNA-World @IRNA_1313
YESJ.Post / i24 Reporter93%match10¢-100%
Some details about the Peace Council's agreement with Hamas after a conversation with relevant sources: ## The weapons themselves, light and heavy, will go into the warehouses - and their dismantling will take place. That is, there will be "iron" there. The warehouses will be under the control of the NCAG police, where every police officer undergoes a security clearance from the Shin Bet - and the multinational force will be supervised. ## The light weapons - will remain with people "subject to Palestinian law": Palestinian law in Gaza says that the maximum that can be owned is a pistol - and that too with a license that will be accepted by the Palestinian technocratic government. ## As soon as the process begins, Israel ceases fire: Currently, there is a two-week ceasefire to summarize the final details of the process - but if Hamas does not begin the process, the ceasefire is canceled because there is a violation. ## The Israeli withdrawal: The Israeli withdrawal from the 53% yellow line will only be at the end of the process and complete demilitarization.
YESaa_arabic94%match10¢-100%
Hamas issued a statement following the announcement by US President Donald Trump and the "Peace Council" of an agreement to implement the next phase of the ceasefire in Gaza: — We and the Palestinian factions have dealt responsibly and positively with the negotiation process and the mediators' proposals to complete the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. —The occupation's commitment to stopping the killing and ending its attacks is the essential entry point and the first step to implementing the agreement and to begin setting the framework and timetable for what has been agreed upon. —The implementation of the second phase of the agreement in Gaza is contingent upon the occupation's commitment to implementing all the provisions of the first phase. —Including the issue of heavy weapons in the agreement is conditional upon a cessation of aggression, withdrawal from Gaza, reconstruction, and guaranteeing the establishment of a Palestinian state.
NON13/GLZ Reporters93%match90¢+11%
Important emphasis - the *current* yellow line. The yellow line that Israel held in October 2025 when the agreement was signed was about 53% of the territory of the Gaza Strip. Today, it has already advanced significantly deeper into the Gaza Strip - and constitutes about 65% of the territory of the Gaza Strip. When a "political official" makes it clear that there will be no withdrawal from the current yellow line either, meaning that Israel does not even agree to return the situation to its previous state as it was in the October 2025 agreement. [in reply to: "Political official" is currently being briefed: Regarding various publications from this morning about political progress in the Gaza Strip, Israel reiterated and clarified that there will be no IDF withdrawal from the current yellow line without a genuine disarmament of Hamas.]
NOYnet Reporter94%match90¢+11%
Political source: Despite reports of progress in Gaza, Israel makes it clear that the IDF will not withdraw from the Yellow Line without a genuine disarmament of Hamas. [in reply to: Hamas We agreed to discuss including the issue of heavy weapons within the framework of the second phase of the agreement, but only subject to a cessation of hostilities, a complete withdrawal of Israel from the Strip, the entry of an administrative committee and an international protection force, the disbandment of the armed militias, the reconstruction of Gaza and the guarantee of the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.]
NON13/GLZ Reporters93%match90¢+11%
"A political source" is now briefing: Regarding various publications from this morning about political progress in the Gaza Strip, Israel has reiterated that there will be no IDF withdrawal from the current Yellow Line without a genuine disarmament of Hamas. [in reply to: In other words, Hamas simply wants the Yellow Line to be moved back again and Israel to return to its borders, and for the assassinations that Israel carries out 3-4 times a day in Gaza to stop, killing senior Hamas figures and the October 7 terrorists one after the other... This is the entire reason Hamas agrees to raise the issue at all. The method: "I promised, but I didn't promise to keep..."]
YESBoard of Peace94%match10¢-100%
Key Elements of the Arrangement and the Meaning of Its Provisions • • Introduction: The Achievement in Its Entirety • • The Roadmap of 30 July 2026 is the document that guides continued implementation of President Trump’s Comprehensive Plan. Its implementation will deliver an Israeli withdrawal, a Gaza governed free from Hamas control and rule by the gun, and the reconstruction of Gaza under Palestinian administration according to the priorities set by the people of Gaza and under the principle of One Authority, One Weapon, One Law. It connects ceasefire commitments anchored in Sharm el-Sheikh through the full implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Plan. This Roadmap is based on phased implementation. The 15 points of the roadmap concretely advance these commitments: • • First, full acceptance of the international framework. Hamas and all the Palestinian factions confirm President Trump's plan and Security Council Resolution 2803 (2025) as the agreed and guiding framework of the process — a framework that includes full demilitarization, de-radicalization, and the transfer of all civilian and security authorities in Gaza to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). • • Second, a full monopoly on weapons and a complete Hamas relinquishment of any governmental involvement (military or civilian). The document establishes that Hamas and the other factions will not be involved in governance in any form, anchors the principle of “One Authority, One Law, One Weapon,” and makes clear that at the end of the process described in Clauses 7 through 10, only the NCAG will hold, store or control any weapon in the Strip. Together, these four clauses cover the entire spectrum of weapons — police weapons (Clause 7); heavy weapons, military production sites, weapons depots, and tunnels (Clause 8); personal weapons (Clause 9); and the weapons of the militias (Clause 10) — leaving no ambiguity by which any faction may hold or even store weapons. • • Third, a conditional and verified process. Progress between phases is neither automatic nor calendar-driven: every transition from phase to phase is conditioned on verified completion of the previous phase's commitments, under the supervision of an International Verification Committee (IVC). The phased Israeli withdrawal is likewise anchored in the Comprehensive Plan — which ties it to verified progress of the decommissioning process — rather than to predetermined dates. • • In this way, the Roadmap transforms the principles of the 20-Point Plan from a political declaration into an operative, phased, and verifiable arrangement: a full Hamas relinquishment of armed rule in exchange for an orderly process of reconstruction, civilian governance, and withdrawal — with each step conditioned on the one before it.
NOIran State News Agency92%match90¢+11%
Hamas: Implementation of the second phase of the agreement is conditional on the occupation regime's adherence to implementing all the clauses of the first phase The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) announced in a statement that the movement and other Palestinian groups have responded responsibly and positively to the negotiations process and the mediators' proposals to complete the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, emphasizing that the implementation of the second phase of the agreement is conditional on the occupation regime's adherence to implementing all the clauses of the first phase. @IRNA_1313
NOChannel 12 (N12)93%match90¢+11%
Tal Sagi An Israeli source involved in the discussions told CNN that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not expected to publicly oppose the disarmament agreement, as he "assesses that Hamas will ultimately violate its terms and not fulfill its obligations." The source said Netanyahu is not expected to order a withdrawal from Gaza before the October elections.
NOentekhab_news92%match90¢+11%
Hamas: The agreement to include the heavy weapons file in the framework of the agreement was conditional on stopping the aggression and withdrawing from the Gaza Strip We interacted with the mediators' proposals with a positive approach to complete the implementation of the second phase of the agreement The implementation of the second phase of the agreement is conditional on the occupiers' adherence to implementing all the provisions of the first phase of the agreement / Selection
YESaljazeera.com93%match8¢-100%
Live: Gaza Board of Peace says Israel, Hamas to fully cease military operations under latest roadmap
NOVenezuela State-Backed TV97%match92¢+9%
Hamas is conditioning Phase 2 of the ceasefire on a cessation of Israeli violence and full compliance with Phase 1. It demanded a deadline for the agreed-upon measures and that Israel fulfill all the provisions of the first phase. #teleSUR #Gaza #Palestine #31Jul
YESN13/GLZ Reporters93%match7¢-100%
In short: a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a halt to the killings in the Strip - in exchange for Hamas disarming and the transfer of control of the Strip to the Peace Council and the Technocratic Committee. The holes, in a nutshell: 1. It is not clear what will happen first - an Israeli withdrawal or Hamas disarming. It will probably be step by step, but the question is which process will be completed first. 2. Gazans are allowed to continue to possess "personal weapons" - this is a problematic clause. 3. Hamas's heavy weapons do not leave the Strip but remain in warehouses within it, and will not pass into "non-Palestinian" hands. Who will prevent Hamas members from looting the warehouses back? [in reply to: The Peace Council publishes the "roadmap" for the implementation of the agreement to disarm Hamas in Gaza and withdraw the IDF from the Strip Among the principles: - Israel and Hamas will immediately cease all military action (i.e. - stopping the Israeli assassinations in Gaza that have been carried out on a daily basis in recent months) - The committee of technocrats will enter the Strip, and confirm that both sides - Israel and Hamas - are fulfilling their commitments - Hamas agrees to transfer all governmental and civilian functions to the Peace Council and undertakes not to interfere in its decisions. Within 3 years, the Peace Council will complete all processes of seizing power in the Gaza Strip. - Newly trained police forces will enter Gaza. All existing police officers in Gaza (=Hamas police officers) will undergo comprehensive examinations - those found unsuitable will be transferred to alternative civilian positions or retired. Police weapons will be transferred to the authority of the Technocrat Committee. - The process of handing over heavy weapons (rockets), military production sites, weapons depots and tunnels will begin after the remaining obligations in the agreement are completed, the Technocrat Committee enters and the multinational force deploys. This process will depend on the Israeli withdrawal, in stages, from areas under Israeli control and the deployment of the armed multinational force. No weapons will be transferred to Israel or to non-Palestinian entities. Only the Peace Council will possess, store, and control weapons in Gaza: "Implementation of this plan will create suitable conditions for a credible path to achieving Palestinian independence and a state." - Civilians in Gaza will be allowed to possess "personal weapons" in accordance with rules to be determined by the Peace Council. - The militias supported by Israel will be disbanded, and their members will not be integrated into the security and police forces in Gaza. - The multinational force will separate IDF forces in the Gaza Strip from areas controlled by the Peace Council. The multinational force will not carry out policing missions in Gaza. It will train the Palestinian police, monitor the implementation of the agreement, and ensure the transfer of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. - IDF forces will complete a phased withdrawal from Gaza according to a timetable to be agreed upon.]
YESaa_arabic91%match7¢-100%
Hamas negotiating team member Ghazi Hamad told Anadolu Agency: We agreed to a comprehensive package deal that includes Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, reconstruction, the deployment of an international force, and the National Committee assuming its responsibilities. The Gaza agreement includes our agreement on general principles, after which there will be another round of talks to establish mechanisms and timelines for implementation. The agreement stipulates the existence of an international commission of inquiry tasked with continuously monitoring implementation. If Israel does not fulfill its obligations under the Gaza agreement, we will not fulfill ours, and no phase will move to the next before the previous one is fully implemented. The implementation of the weapons arrangements is conditional on Israel fulfilling the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, withdrawing from Gaza, the National Committee assuming its responsibilities, the international force being deployed, and the militias being dismantled. The agreement stipulates that heavy weapons will be stored under the responsibility of the Palestinian National Committee after Israel fulfills its obligations. The agreement is painful and difficult, but it came to save the Palestinians in Gaza is safe from genocide and Israel's diabolical schemes aimed at displacement and the continuation of its aggression. The agreement came after national consultations and meetings with Palestinian factions to ensure a unified stance.
NOAl Jazeera93%match93¢+8%
Hamas: We and the factions dealt responsibly and positively with the negotiation process and the mediators' proposals to complete the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement.
NOAl Arabiya95%match93¢+8%
Hamas: Implementing the second phase of the Gaza agreement depends on Israel's commitment to all the terms of the first phase.
NOaa_arabic92%match93¢+8%
#Urgent | Hamas: Implementing the second phase of the agreement in Gaza depends on the occupation's commitment to implementing all the terms of the first phase.
NOalmayadeenlive93%match93¢+8%
Occupied Palestine: Hamas: We affirm that the implementation of the second phase of the agreement is contingent upon the occupation's commitment to implementing all the provisions of the first phase.
NOaa_arabic93%match93¢+8%
#Urgent | Hamas: We and the Palestinian factions have dealt responsibly and positively with the negotiation process and the mediators' proposals to complete the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement (statement)
NOalarabytv95%match93¢+8%
#Urgent | Hamas: Implementation of the second phase of the agreement is contingent upon the occupation's commitment to implementing all the terms of the first phase. Agreement to include the issue of heavy weapons within the framework of the agreement is fundamentally conditional upon a cessation of aggression and the withdrawal of the occupation.
NOAl Jazeera92%match93¢+8%
Hamas: We affirm that the implementation of the second phase of the agreement is contingent upon the occupation's commitment to implementing all the provisions of the first phase.
NOAl Araby92%match93¢+8%
Hamas: Implementing the second phase of the agreement depends on the occupation's commitment to implementing all the terms of the first phase.
NOalarabytv92%match93¢+8%
#Urgent | Hamas: Implementing the second phase of the agreement depends on the occupation's commitment to implementing all the terms of the first phase.
NOHamas96%match83¢+20%
In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful Press Statement Hamas and the Palestinian factions have dealt responsibly and positively with the negotiation process and the mediators' proposals to complete the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. This was done with national consensus among the Palestinian factions, reflecting a spirit of partnership and responsibility, stemming from our commitment to protecting our people, meeting their humanitarian needs, and preserving their national rights. The occupation's commitment to halting the killing and ending its aggression is the fundamental prerequisite and the first step towards implementation. This includes establishing the framework and timetable for what has been agreed upon, while emphasizing that the implementation of the second phase of the agreement is contingent upon the occupation's commitment to implementing all the provisions of the first phase. The inclusion of the heavy weapons file within the framework of the agreement has been linked to and stipulated by the cessation of all forms of aggression, withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, achieving early recovery, the entry of the Administrative Committee, the deployment of international protection forces, the disbanding of armed gangs and militias formed by the occupation, reconstruction, guaranteeing the right to self-determination, and the establishment of the Palestinian state. Independent, and protecting citizens' rights. Hamas and the Palestinian factions extend their greetings and appreciation to our steadfast people in the Gaza Strip, and affirm that they will continue to work together on this path for the sake of our people and to safeguard all their rights. Islamic Resistance Movement - Hamas Friday: July 31, 2026 Corresponding to: 17 Safar 1448 AH Official Website - Hamas
NOaa_arabic92%match83¢+20%
#Urgent | Ghazi Hamad: Implementation of the arms arrangements is conditional on Israel implementing the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, withdrawing from Gaza, the National Committee assuming its duties, the deployment of the international force, and the dismantling of the militias.
YESafp94%match12¢-100%
🇵🇸 Hamas said Friday it had agreed to a deal announced by US President Donald Trump to end the war with Israel, that includes it handing over its weapons to a Palestinian governing committee and the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. • âž¡ï¸�
YESaa_arabic94%match9¢-100%
Following the announcement by the "Peace Council" and US President Donald Trump of a "historic" agreement to implement the next phase of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, Palestinian sources revealed to Anadolu Agency the most prominent points of the proposed roadmap. Palestinian sources to Anadolu Agency: — Implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement will begin within 14 days of the approval of all parties, after a complete cessation of military operations and the fulfillment of humanitarian obligations. — The National Committee for the Administration of the Gaza Strip will assume civil and security responsibilities, according to the principle of "one authority, one law, and one weapon." — Qualified members of the security services will be integrated into official institutions, while civilian alternatives will be provided for those who are unqualified or who will be retired. — The disarmament process includes heavy weapons, tunnels, and military production sites, with weapons remaining within the Gaza Strip under the responsibility of the National Committee, and without Israeli supervision. — Palestinian factions will participate in the inventory and storage of weapons, while an international committee will oversee the process. The process. — Disarmament is linked to a phased withdrawal of the Israeli army, reconstruction, and a credible path toward the establishment of a Palestinian state. — An international force will be deployed to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire, ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid, and support the National Committee for the Administration of the Gaza Strip. — The draft also stipulates the implementation of a comprehensive plan for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip under international supervision.
YESalarabiya92%match9¢-100%
Details of the agreement to disarm Hamas and for Israel to withdraw from Gaza
NOalarabytv92%match78¢+28%
#Breaking | Hamas official to Reuters: The Gaza agreement must be implemented in stages, but Israel must withdraw its forces from the Strip. Once both sides agree on the text of the agreement, Israel must begin implementing the first stage. The national committee and an international force must enter Gaza, and the armed groups supported by Israel will be dismantled.
NOAl Araby96%match78¢+28%
A Hamas official told Reuters: Once both sides agree on the text of the agreement, Israel must begin implementing the first phase.
YESalarabytv93%match14¢-100%
Trump announces a "historic" agreement on arms control and a gradual Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip... What do the parties say, and when will implementation begin? @jamel_ezzedini
YESfranceinfo.fr94%match14¢-100%
Live: #GAZA Hamas has agreed to a disarmament agreement in the Gaza Strip, with a view to implementing the second phase of the ceasefire between the Palestinian Islamist movement and Israel...
YESalhadath92%match15¢-100%
Two Hamas officials confirm reaching an agreement with Israel: "We expect the mediators and the Peace Council to guarantee Tel Aviv's commitment."
YESiranintlbrk97%match18¢-100%
After Trump announced that an agreement had been reached on the second phase of the ceasefire, senior Hamas official Razi Hamad said that Hamas's stockpiling of weapons was conditional on Israel's gradual withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the dismantling of Israeli-backed militias.
YESBelarus State News Agency94%match18¢-100%
Trump announced that an agreement had been reached on the complete disarmament of Hamas forces. He noted that Israel would withdraw its forces from Gaza after the disarmament of Hamas forces. Implementation of the disarmament agreement is reported to begin in the coming weeks.
YESafp.com92%match31¢-100%
Hamas agrees to deal for disarmament, Israel's withdrawal from Gaza
YESafp.com92%match35¢-100%
Hamas officials say deal agreed on group's arms, gradual Israel withdrawal from Gaza
YESafp91%match37¢-100%
Trump announces agreement for the "complete disarmament" of Hamas. • • Senior Hamas officials tell AFP the agreement reached with Israel includes provisions addressing the group's weapons and the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip • •
YESBoard of Peace93%match45¢-100%
The Board of Peace and the mediating countries of Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye, and the United States today are pleased to announce that Hamas has agreed to a detailed Roadmap for implementing the next phases of the Gaza ceasefire. • • The agreement concludes months of intensive, good faith negotiations to advance President Donald J. Trump's vision for establishing new governance, security, humanitarian relief, reconstruction, and economic recovery in Gaza as set out in the Comprehensive Peace Plan and U.N. Security Council Resolution 2803. • • The Roadmap represents a historic breakthrough. For the first time, Hamas officially has committed to an actionable plan for relinquishing all its weapons, which will be followed by Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. • It holds the promise of delivering significant benefits to the people of Gaza, who have waited for too long for a better future, and security to the people of Israel. • • Our focus now turns to implementation. The Board of Peace has worked closely with the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). It will soon begin a phased transition toward full authority, backed by the International Stabilization Force (ISF), and will accelerate implementation of the rule of law, security, and humanitarian improvement in Gaza.

Where does the news lean?

44YES73NO10neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

Past moves on this market

Material odds moves (8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.

How did this market resolve?

On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.

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